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Week nine of the college football season produced one of the most exciting American slates we’ve witnessed all year.

Saturday’s marquee South Florida at Memphis matchup lived up to the hype, delivering a frantic finish that saw the Tigers ride a 14-point fourth quarter into the lead before a catastrophically-timed holding penalty tanked USF’s attempt at a game-tying field goal.

Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB put Ryan Silverfield’s squad in danger of missing not just the College Football Playoff but the American championship game. After (barely) passing perhaps the toughest test of their season, the Tigers remain in postseason contention.

Both Temple and Rice picked up overtime victories over Tulsa and UConn, respectively; at 5-3 (3-1), Temple is enjoying its best season since 2019. In his first year in Philadelphia, Owls head coach K.C. Keeler has instantly transformed the program from a three-win embarrassment to one capable of competing with almost any conference opponent.

Although Temple still has a ways to go before returning to the standard it established under Matt Rhule, the Owls must feel good about rivaling UTSA and Army in SP+ a year after losing to those teams by a combined 52 points. An FCS national championship winner at both Delaware and Sam Houston State, Keeler is one of the most successful coaches in college football history. Over the last few months, he’s shown why.

Even the weekend’s bad games were fun. North Texas and Charlotte fought a battle that, while predictably uncompetitive, featured 74 points and over 1,150 yards, while Navy beat FAU as the two teams combined for just one punt. The Mean Green (7-1, 3-1) and the Midshipmen (7-0, 5-0) are barreling towards a head-to-head matchup in Denton this Saturday, one with significant implications for both the conference title and playoff races.

So what were the week’s defining moments? How did its most important games play out? What did we learn from week nine?

Memphis Finds a Way

For a moment, it looked as though South Florida was going to finish what UAB started.

As the clock ran out on the third quarter, Bulls running back Sam Franklin received a handoff in the backfield, patiently picked his way through a scrum of defenders, and turned on the jets once he reached the second level. 73 yards later, USF’s lead was 31-13.

With Memphis’ highly-touted rushing offense having struggled all day, it seemed unlikely the Tigers were capable of mounting a response. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, ESPN Analytics gave them a five percent chance of victory.

However, quarterback Brendon Lewis — listed as questionable until the day of the game and perhaps still ailing from the injury he suffered against UAB — remained calm and composed; after accumulating just 173 passing yards in the first three quarters, Lewis racked up 148 in the fourth alone. Of Memphis’ three fourth-quarter drives, two resulted in touchdowns, while the other ended in a field goal. Although it’s taken a backseat to the ground game all season, the Tigers’ air attack shined when it mattered most.

It helped that USF had no recourse for the hosts’ onslaught, its offense unable to cross the Memphis 45-yard line from the beginning of the fourth quarter until its final possession of the afternoon.

“I think really the most frustrating piece is just not able to score in the fourth,” USF head coach Alex Golesh said. “We protected well, but I felt like at times we we couldn’t get open. Man, it was frustrating.”

With less than 90 seconds on the clock, Memphis receiver Cortez Braham hauled in a contested touchdown pass to put his team up 32-31.

Moments later, Lewis stretched out for a critical two-point conversion that barred the Bulls from winning the game on a field goal. This forced the visitors to cobble together a frantic drive that achieved forward progress by any available means — passes across the middle, quarterback scrambles, and Memphis penalties alike propelled USF to the Tigers’ 24-yard line.

The Bulls had little chance of defeating Memphis in regulation, but their mad dash set up kicker Nico Gramatica with an opportunity at a game-tying, 42-yard field goal. On the season, Gramatica was nine for nine from inside that range. Overtime seemed inevitable.

The key word being “seemed.” On USF’s final offensive play of the game, an overthrown shot to the end zone, graduate student center Cole Best briefly and illegally wrapped up Memphis defensive back Kamari Wilson from behind. This transgression did not escape the eyes of the officials. Now attempting a kick ten yards further back than he was expecting, Gramatica’s try (which almost certainly would’ve been good from 42) sailed wide left, sealing the Tigers’ crucial victory and prompting fervent celebrations from the Memphis sideline.

USF will be kicking itself over this one for many months. Quarterback Byrum Brown wasn’t perfect, throwing a game-opening interception to former UAB linebacker Everett Roussaw, but he played well enough for the Bulls to win. Brown turned in a solid-enough passing performance while spearheading a USF ground attack that averaged 7.8 yards per carry. Included in his 121 rushing yards was a 44-yard first-quarter touchdown that must be seen to be believed.

However, the Bulls managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory thanks in large part to a controversial game management decision. Up 24-17 with 5:51 left in the third quarter, USF faced a fourth and 3 at the Memphis 7-yard line; instead of taking the near-automatic points, Golesh went for the jugular with a risky conversion attempt that was promptly blown up Memphis linebacker Sam Brumfield. Although the Bulls’ ugly fourth quarter also played an outsized role in their demise, it’s hard to ignore the fact that USF lost by three points. Would’ve been nice to have that field goal.

On the opposite sideline, the time for playing with fire is over. The day’s positives shouldn’t outweigh the fact that Memphis was all but out of it with 15 minutes left in the game. The Tigers’ remaining schedule includes East Carolina, Rice and Navy and Tulane, the American’s only remaining unbeatens; a loss would essentially eliminate Memphis from conference title contention. As the winner of the American will, in all likelihood, receive the G6 bid to the College Football Playoff, Memphis’ dreams of making a national splash hinge on the next few weeks.

USF is in the same scenario, only it now loses the tiebreaker to Memphis and needs to win out while hoping the Tigers suffer a defeat. With UTSA, Navy, UAB, and Rice left, the Bulls have a more manageable slate than does Memphis, but its November 15th visit to Annapolis will be one of the conference’s games of the season. And who knows? Maybe UAB has something in store for another of the American’s top contenders.

Temple’s K.C. Keeler: AAC Coach of the Year?

For our purposes, the details of Temple’s 38-37 overtime victory over Tulsa are academic.

Despite having won just one FBS game all year (against Oklahoma State, ironically), the Golden Hurricane gave the Owls all they could handle on a dreary Oklahoma afternoon. Tulsa quarterback Baylor Hayes completed several spectacular throws, tight end Brody Foley accounted for three touchdowns, and the home team erased an 11-point deficit to send the game into overtime tied at 31. Temple only escaped after stopping Tulsa on a two-point conversion, breaking up Foley’s wildcat pop pass.

The Owls are 5-3 and 3-1 in the American — the same conference record as North Texas, South Florida, and Memphis — but they play UNT and Tulane in the coming weeks, opponents that will likely deal crippling blows to Temple’s status as a dark horse title contender.

Nevertheless, Temple is 3-1 in the American, a development observers of the 2024 campaign would have a hard time believing. This site’s preview of that season, the last of the doomed Stan Drayton era, read:

Another 3-9 season would put the program in its worst condition since the nadir of the Wallace era. Almost unanimously the worst team in the AAC, the Owls will attempt to claw their way back to relevancy while saddled with a gaping hole at quarterback, a head coach on the hot seat, and the remnants of a historically bad defense.

That team indeed finished 3-9 (2-6), and Drayton was fired before the year ended.

But let’s take a look at the last sentence of that quote and identify what’s different in 2025. The remnants of a historically bad defense? Ranked 98th in SP+, Temple’s defense is by no means great, but it’s much improved from last season’s 125th-ranked unit. A gaping hole at quarterback? Former Rutgers transfer Evan Simon is PFF’s 19th-ranked signal-caller and has thrown 21 touchdowns and no picks; he’s 15 passes away from tying the FBS single-season record for pass attempts without an interception. A head coach on the hot seat? The furthest thing from it.

Hired less than 11 months ago, K.C. Keeler has already done what no Temple coach has been able to do since the pandemic: surpass three wins in a single season. He’s accomplished the feat in impressive fashion, positioning his squad one victory away from bowl eligibility by October. The Owls’ only losses have come against Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, and conference leader Navy; the neck-and-neck Navy game was decided by a two-point conversion Temple couldn’t stop. The Owls’ luck swung the other way against Tulsa, and Temple now has to beat one of East Carolina, Army, UNT, and Tulane to reach six wins for the first time since 2019.

Keeler has been undervalued throughout his long career. Hired in 2002 at Delaware, his alma mater, Keeler was a sensation in Newark, winning the FCS national championship in his second season and posing with bobbleheads bearing his likeness. However, a rough 2012 campaign led to his shock firing; after a year out of coaching, Keeler moved on to Sam Houston, where he posted an 11-win debut season. By the turn of the decade, he had transformed SHSU into a national championship-winning program, becoming the all-time leader in FCS playoffs victories and the only coach in history to capture FCS titles at two different universities.

Keeler’s success continued when the Bearkats jumped up a level in 2023. After a shaky FBS debut, he led SHSU to a 10-3 record and a New Orleans Bowl win last year. However, Keeler told 247Sports, Sam Houston’s administration encouraged him to move on after the campaign, citing the school’s lack of resources.

“We’re not going to be able to give you what you deserve in terms of your salary, in terms of coaches’ salaries, in terms of NIL money,” Keeler said SHSU athletic director Bobby Williams told him.

Although people in the know understood what Temple was getting, the Owls swiped Keeler over the offseason to relatively little buzz, hiring a man ESPN named one of the 150 greatest coaches in college football history for less than $2 million a year. There’s some buzz now.

Other Notes

Rice’s first season of Scott Abell is going great. Although the Owls are 4-4 and just 1-3 in conference play, that’ll do the trick for a program that hasn’t had a winning season since 2014. In two weeks, UAB will take on the option offense in Houston, a contest that could prove to be crucial in the Blazers’ pursuit of bowl eligibility. More pressingly, Rice defeated UConn, UAB’s next opponent, over the weekend by a double-overtime score of 37-34. The Huskies struggled to establish their running attack and were worn down after facing 78 plays from scrimmage, two things the Blazers are surely happy to hear.

North Texas beat Charlotte 54-20, a score that belies the fact the Mean Green, hampered by turnovers and drive-finishing struggles, led just 27-20 going into the fourth quarter. For the first time this season, Charlotte found itself within seven points of an FBS opponent in the fourth quarter — a wild stat — and thus got aggressive, attempting a fake punt from its own 23-yard line that was snuffed out by UNT special teamer Dalton Carnes. This blunder sent the Mean Green offense into hyperdrive: North Texas immediately scored on the short field before posting three more touchdowns in quick succession. Charlotte recorded a grand total of one more first down.

On the day, UNT quarterback Drew Mestemaker set a school and conference record with 608 passing yards, throwing for four touchdowns and 12.4 yards per attempt. His total is the most by an FBS QB since UCF’s Dillon Gabriel threw for 601 yards against Memphis in 2020. Per The Athletic’s Sam Khan, almost 400 of Mestemaker’s yards came after the catch, a testament to the offense installed by North Texas head coach Eric Morris and offensive coordinator Jordan Davis.

Navy knocked off FAU 42-32, but the Owls were never in it. Like Charlotte, FAU held on during the first half thanks to a Midshipmen fumble and failed fourth-down conversion; however, the Owls suffered turnover troubles of their own and had no answers for Blake Horvath and his clinical service academy offense. Prior to FAU’s garbage time shenanigans, Navy led 42-19, and that’s after going two-for-five on fourth down.

Navy’s real season begins now. The Midshipmen are 7-0 and 5-0 in conference play, but its toughest opponent thus far has been Temple. The next five weeks are absolutely brutal: North Texas, Notre Dame, USF, Memphis, and a game against Army that doesn’t count for the playoff or conference title races. With the Fighting Irish on its schedule, Navy has the potential to shake up not just the G6 CFP picture but the national one. It enters the gauntlet this weekend at Apogee Stadium.

This Week’s Slate

Thursday: UTSA (3-4, 1-2) vs. Tulane (6-1, 3-0)

Friday: Rice (4-4, 1-3) vs. Memphis (7-1, 3-1)

At all costs, the conference’s top contenders must avoid trap game losses to lower-tier opponents, something easier said than done. For Tulane, only about a field goal favorite at the Alamodome, this weekend presents a nerve-wracking challenge. Memphis (-14.5) has more room to breathe, but the Tigers haven’t turned in a wire-to-wire win since October 4th. As we saw two weeks ago, anything can happen in the American.

Saturday: UAB (3-4) at UConn (5-3)

Saturday: Army (3-4) at Air Force (2-5)

Both UAB and Army are battling down the stretch for bowl eligibility. If the Black Knights can get past a bewildering Air Force team that balances a cripplingly bad defense with one of the best offenses in service academy history, they’d have to beat two of Temple, Tulsa, UTSA, and Navy to get to six wins. It’ll be close, but a loss on Saturday would probably doom Army to a losing record.

The Blazers (+11.5) walk a similarly narrow path. Vegas sees UAB as likely to fall at UConn, which would force the Green and Gold to beat both Rice and Tulsa on the road while taking down one of North Texas and USF at home.

Saturday: Temple (5-3, 3-1) vs. ECU (4-3, 2-1)

Bowl eligibility is on the line here for Temple, which hasn’t made the postseason since 2019. Don’t sleep on ECU (-4.5), though, which has only lost to BYU, NC State, and Tulane. If the Pirates win on Saturday, they’ll be 3-1 in conference play with Charlotte, Memphis, UTSA, and FAU ahead. An American record of 6-2 or better is possible in Blake Harrell’s first full season.

Saturday: North Texas (7-1, 3-1) vs. Navy (7-0, 5-0)

Massive title implications in the indisputable game of the week. Already having lost to USF, North Texas desperately needs this one; UAB, Rice, and Temple make up the remainder of UNT’s schedule, and a 7-1 finish is in sight. The high-octane Mean Green welcome another offensive juggernaut in Navy, albeit one that achieves success by much different means. This is not a game to miss.

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There is little to say about what Iverson Hooks did against Memphis that hasn’t already been said.

With 172, the redshirt sophomore set UAB’s single-game FBS records for receiving yards against a ranked opponent and receiving yards by an underclassman. His 11 catches are tied for fifth-most in a single game in program history. For his efforts, Hooks was named the American Conference Offensive Player of the Week and was lauded on ESPN.

Considering the stakes, the quality of opponent, and his age, Hooks’ performance is one of the greatest in the history of UAB football. But how does it stack up against the best days of legends like Roddy White, Derrick Ingram, and J.J. Nelson? Going by receiving yards, let’s take a look at the top wide receiver statlines in program history, first touching on some honorable mentions.

HM: Roddy White, 171, 10/11/03 vs. Cincinnati

In Cincinnati’s second-to-last season in Conference USA (and its last before it began its march to prominence under Mark Dantonio), UAB quarterback Darrell Hackney and wide receiver Roddy White left the Bearcats a parting gift. On a dreary Saturday afternoon at Legion Field, the Blazers’ battery torched the visiting secondary as White accumulated 171 yards on just four catches. The future Falcons star, a fixture on this list, caught touchdown passes of 56 and 95 yards.

HM: Iverson Hooks, 172, 10/18/25 vs. Memphis

Long after Hooks leaves Birmingham, his contested touchdown catch over former UAB safety Chris Bracy will be the lasting image from Saturday’s upset win.

HM: Roddy White, 177, 09/25/04 vs. Memphis

Another dominant effort against Memphis, this performance came during an era where UAB regularly defeated the Tigers. In 2004, the Blazers, fielding perhaps their best pre-Clark team, extended their winning streak against Memphis to five en route to securing their first-ever bowl bid. Running back Corey White (no relation) scored the winning touchdown with 13 seconds left, but Roddy’s 177 yards and three touchdowns carried UAB to victory.

HM: Tejhaun Palmer, 179, 11/04/23 vs. FAU

This was the historic afternoon during which Jacob Zeno set the program’s FBS record for passing yards in a game, finishing 29-35 with 484 yards and five touchdown passes. Jermaine Brown and Palmer, who racked up nine catches for 179 yards, served as Zeno’s security blankets; with 4:20 left in the fourth quarter, the latter broke free for a game-tying touchdown. A Matt Quinn field goal eventually secured UAB the win.

HM: Trea Shropshire, 180, 12/18/20 at Marshall

The honorable mention status of this entry undersells the role Trea Shropshire played in capturing the Blazers’ second conference championship. Much of the 2020 Conference USA title game was a physical, low-scoring defensive showdown; the Green and Gold led 9-0 at the half, but Marshall reclaimed the momentum with a third-quarter fumble recovery. The Blazers were only able to break away thanks to the efforts of Shropshire, who entered the evening with just 130 receiving yards all year but accumulated 180 in the game alone. A dagger touchdown with 4:03 left in the fourth quarter is one of the most memorable plays of both Shropshire’s career and the Clark era.

HM: Trea Shropshire, 183, 12/16/22 vs. Miami

Two years after his performance at Marshall, Shropshire had matured into UAB’s leading wideout and one of the most dangerous deep threats in program history. He proved it in his final college game, torching Miami (OH) to the tune of 183 receiving yards and a touchdown on six catches. Shropshire tied the Bahamas Bowl record for receiving yards and hauled in three passes of 45-plus yards to ensure the Blazers emerged victorious from a wild game.

HM: Austin Watkins, 183, 9/24/20 at USA

No Tyler Johnston III, no problem. The absence of the Blazers’ injured starting quarterback didn’t bother Austin Watkins, owner of hands so steady he eventually parlayed them into an NFL stint. As was customary for the senior, he came down with all of his targets but one. The first play of the game saw backup Bryson Lucero hit Watkins for 56 yards on a play-action pass; their connection only grew stronger as the evening progressed, with Watkins later posterizing a South Alabama defender in the corner of the end zone to put UAB up 35-10.

HM: Reggie Lindsey, 184, 10/08/05 vs. SMU

October 8th, 2005 is a day few Blazers look back on fondly. A 3-1 UAB squad, having suffered no setbacks but a one-possession loss to Tennessee, all but had a mediocre SMU team beat. In the first quarter, Darrell Hackney tossed an 89-yard touchdown pass to Reggie Lindsey before later finding him for a 50-yard strike. UAB clung to its advantage until the end of the game, when it led 27-22 with 22 seconds remaining… and lost. Despite Lindsey’s heroic effort, SMU wide receiver Bobby Chase hauled in a 31-yard heave with no time on the clock, sending Legion Field’s homecoming crowd into a state of stunned silence.

10. Derrick Ingram, 186, 9/17/94 vs. Jax State

The first receiver in our proper top ten is Derrick Ingram, perhaps the most potent offensive weapon in UAB’s FCS history. There were doubts that the 5’11” Dallas County native could cut it at the Division I level, but Ingram proved doubters wrong in 1993 when he turned in a second-team All-American season. He continued his hot streak at the beginning of the 1994 campaign as he hauled in 21 receptions for 311 yards over three games. One of these contests was a loss to Jacksonville State in which Ingram provided most of the Blazers’ scoring pop, taking a pass 95 yards for a first-half touchdown that gave UAB a short-lived halftime lead.

9. Kevin Drake, 187, 11/15/97 vs. Tennessee Tech

The greatest game of Kevin Drake’s career was perhaps the least interesting of any on this list. The Birmingham Post-Herald described UAB’s “workmanlike” 38-14 win over FCS Tennessee Tech as “drudgery,” contested on a “cold, dreary day before fewer than 5,000 people.” For most of the afternoon, the 3-6 Blazers played unmotivated football in a game that had neither stakes or an audience. The only bright spot was Drake, a converted quarterback, who turned in one of the most prolific halves in UAB football history. In the game’s first 30 minutes, he hauled in six receptions for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, a second-half shoulder injury robbed Drake of a chance to break the 200-yard threshold.

8. Trea Shropshire, 193, 10/08/22 vs. MTSU

Before Saturday’s win over Memphis, the most impressive game UAB had played in Protective Stadium was arguably its 2022 demolition of Middle Tennessee. Although the campaign was a frustrating one that saw the Blazers suffer five one-possession losses after being projected a conference title contender, the Green and Gold lived up to its promise for one October afternoon, dropping 38 points on the Blue Raiders before halftime. Like Drake, Shropshire did all of his damage in the first 30 minutes, racking up six catches for 193 yards and one 68-yard touchdown.

7. Derrick Ingram, 194, 11/6/93 at Butler

For many years, the 1993 UAB football team stood as the program’s winningest of all time, finishing the year with a sparkling record of 9-2. One of the reasons for the Blazers’ success was their ability to adapt to their circumstances and find ways to achieve victory when their preferred path was blocked off. No game made that more evident than UAB’s November contest against Butler, during which the Green and Gold rushed for a mind-blowing seven yards on 18 carries. No matter; Ingram, a one-man offense, grabbed nine catches for 194 yards and powered UAB to a stunning 13-point comeback, then a school record.

6. Xavier Ubosi, 196, 10/13/18 at Rice

The first appearance of Xavier Ubosi, the premier deep threat of the early Return era. The California native turned in a productive but not spectacular 2017 campaign; in 2018, however, he led the entire FBS in yards per reception with 23.9. Ubosi introduced himself to the nation during UAB’s 42-0 October victory over Rice as he went for 196 yards and two touchdowns on just four receptions, posting a whopping 49.0 yards per catch. The latter mark remains UAB’s FBS record for single-game YPC among players that hauled in three or more receptions. Ubosi’s most memorable moment of the day, of course, was his 95-yard bomb that broke the game open in the Blazers’ favor.

5. J.J. Nelson, 199, 08/31/13 at Troy

J.J. Nelson’s 2013 effort against Troy bears many similarities to Reggie Lindsey’s above effort against SMU: both performances were turned in by fantastic all-around players, and both performances were erased by a heartbreaking loss. Like Lindsey, Nelson was a dangerous returner — the greatest in school history, in fact — but he wasn’t just a special teams threat, although he did take a kickoff 97 yards to the house in this game. Nelson also grabbed ten catches for 199 yards and two touchdowns, including one that gave his squad a late 14-point advantage. Alas, UAB blew that lead in the fourth quarter; it would go on to post a miserable 2-10 record that got Garrick McGee fired.

4. Patrick Hearn, 201, 11/24/12 at UCF

Patrick Hearn was a productive contributor across his four years on the Southside, starting 29 games; by the end of his career, Hearn ranked in the program’s all-time top ten in receptions (110) and receiving yards (1,551). However, Hearn was usually the second or third option and rarely The Guy, eclipsing 100 single-game yards just thrice. The most notable of those occasions was an otherwise-forgettable November loss to UCF in which some players had long since checked out of an uninspiring 3-9 campaign. Not Hearn, who not only broke the 100-yard threshold but broke the 200-yard threshold, taking a second-quarter pass 76 yards into the end zone.

3. Xavier Ubosi, 227, 12/18/18 vs. NIU

By December 2018, UAB football had accomplished nearly everything it had set out to achieve after the Return. Winning season, check. Division title, check. Ten-win season, check. Conference championship, check. Bowl berth, check. New stadium in the works, check. After Ohio thrashed the Blazers in the 2017 Bahamas Bowl, the only thing left on the list was a bowl win. That’s why Ubosi’s 227-yard, three-touchdown Boca Raton Bowl explosion is so memorable: from the first play of the game, when Ubosi scored on a 70-yard go route, it was apparent the wide receiver wasn’t going to let the Blazers go home with anything short of a trophy.

2. Roddy White, 253, 10/23/04 at Tulane

Like in many cases we’ve discussed today, White’s 2004 showing against Tulane was overshadowed by an incredible football game that ultimately went the way of UAB’s opponent. Entering the afternoon, the Blazers were 5-1 to Tulane’s 1-4 and were 18-point favorites as visitors to New Orleans; nevertheless, UAB managed to drop its third straight to the Green Wave despite putting up nearly 650 yards of offense and leading by three points with under two minutes left in the contest. Blazer defensive coordinator Wayne Bolt apologized to fans after the game, and The Birmingham News called UAB’s special teams performance “schizophrenic.”

In spite of the defeat, White’s performance can only be described as his magnum opus — 253 yards and a touchdown on ten receptions (seven yards off of what was then the Conference USA record). He made catch after catch on the day, converting a fourth and 13 that allowed UAB to jump ahead 55-52 in crunch time; unfortunately, Tulane responded.

1. Derrick Ingram, 289, 11/19/94 at PVAMU

Here we have it — the closest a UAB receiver has ever gotten to breaking 300 yards. Just over two months after rewriting the record books against Jacksonville State, Ingram did so again against one of the worst teams of all time, a Prairie View A&M squad in the midst of the longest losing streak in college football history. The Blazers certainly took advantage of their opponents’ weakness, describing their 48-6 smashing of the Panthers as though it was a flag football game.

“It was fun…” UAB quarterback John Whitcomb, who threw for 539 yards and six touchdowns, said. “The offensive line had probably the best game I’ve ever seen. I just set back and looked for the receivers.”

The primary beneficiary of Whitcomb’s unlimited time in the pocket, Ingram was unstoppable, posting 12 receptions for 289 yards and four touchdowns. After the victory, USA Today named both Whitcomb and Ingram its nationwide co-offensive players of the week.

If it were a movie, audiences would have claimed it was too cliche.

With no permanent coach, no starting quarterback, and no conference wins in the last 329 days, UAB hosted its biggest rival, a ranked, undefeated College Football Playoff contender it hadn’t beaten since 2011. Sportsbooks gave the Blazers, 23.5-point underdogs, a greater chance to lose by four touchdowns than to achieve victory against No. 22 Memphis.

But — although it’s been a few years — UAB is accustomed to doing the impossible. Saturday afternoon, the Blazers tapped into a muscle memory they had repressed since 2021, shocking the world as they once did so often. Backup quarterback Ryder Burton was efficient and composed, Iverson Hooks accumulated a career-high 172 receiving yards, and the Green and Gold emerged from the wilderness it had inhabited since beating BYU in Shreveport. Six days after Trent Dilfer’s firing, the Tigers fell 31-24; the Bones returned to Birmingham.

“I’m so proud of these guys, man,” Burton said. “We battled like crazy. I couldn’t be more proud, man. It took everybody today, and we did it.”

UAB turned in its best offensive performance of the season, controlling the tempo of the game with 219 rushing yards — its time of possession was 35:05 to the visitors’ 24:55 — and outgaining Memphis 470 to 362. Burton completed 20 of 27 pass attempts for 251 yards, earning himself a Manning Star of the Week. Running back Solomon Beebe ran for 106 yards on five carries against the nation’s 15th-ranked rushing defense. Hooks’ explosion won him American Conference Player of the Week honors.

An Auspicious Debut

Interim head coach Alex Mortensen had never led a college team before. Set to make his 15th consecutive start, Jalen Kitna was officially ruled out with an upper-body injury just hours before the game. With the odds so dramatically stacked against them, no one would have batted an eye if the Blazers rolled over in front of a sparse homecoming crowd.

Instead, UAB set the tone with a 10-play, 75-yard possession, scoring its first opening-drive touchdown since week 2 at Navy. Small gains were interspersed with large chunk plays; explosive runs from Nate Rogers and Beebe carried the Blazers deep into Memphis territory, at which point Burton established his fruitful connection with Hooks, finding the redshirt sophomore receiver streaking down a crease into the end zone.

A redshirt sophomore who saw the bench at both BYU and West Virginia, Burton quickly adapted to his first extended stint in an FBS game, starting 5/5 and throwing a 15-yard touchdown pass. Burton attributed his composure to three years of “preparing like a starter” and a Mortensen gameplan that eased him into action.

“I think with Coach Mort’s plan, it was easy to see some of those first little completions, you know?” Burton said. “I didn’t necessarily make all the big throws on the first drive. I think I just settled in well, and then it just opened up a little bit from there.”

Holding Strong

No observer of UAB football was shocked by what happened next: a Blazer team that struggles to string together positive plays again struggled to string together positive plays.

Moments after Hooks scored, a Sutton Smith return touchdown erased the hosts’ lead. On UAB’s subsequent drive, a pressured Burton threw a telegraphed interception that gave the Tigers the ball at their own 38-yard line. From there, the script was obvious. The fun was over; the hammer was about to drop; Memphis would use the 18 minutes left in the half to take the lead, consolidate its advantage, and cruise to an easy victory.

In perhaps the most important sequence of the afternoon, that didn’t happen. For the first time all year, UAB denied its opponent a first-drive touchdown, overcoming one of its biggest weaknesses to do so. Facing a fourth and 3 at the Blazers’ 40-yard line, Memphis decided to try its luck against a defense prone to giving up fourth-down conversions, but the UAB secondary held steady. Chased out of the pocket, Tiger quarterback Brendon Lewis had no options but to throw the ball into the stands.

Although the Blazer defense went a middling 5-11 on third downs and 2-4 on fourth downs, it walled up on the plays that mattered most. UAB’s offense was also highly effective on late downs, a welcome departure from precedent. Entering the matchup, the Blazers ranked 70th nationally in third-down offense and 76th in fourth-down offense. Saturday, the Green and Gold went 9 of 13 on third down and 1 of 1 on fourth, a result set up by early-down successes.

“We’ve struggled a little bit when we’ve gotten behind the sticks on early downs,” Mortensen said. “And so one of our key focuses on offense this week was to try to stay ahead of schedule, and let’s see if we can make another team beat us first, you know, instead of defeating ourselves.”

The Blazers’ lone fourth-down conversion briefly rescued their next drive, which came at the beginning of the second quarter. After stopping Memphis in their tracks, UAB mounted one of its many long marches but found itself in traction at the opposing 39-yard line. On fourth and 2, Jackson ripped off a 10-yard run, keeping his balance as he barely evaded a Tiger defender in the backfield.

Two plays later, a 19-yard Beebe touchdown was nullified by a holding penalty against UAB, but it seemed the hosts would score anyway as they advanced to the Memphis goal line on the shoulders of Hooks and Jacobs. However, the Green and Gold’s red zone offense — another of the weaker facets of its game — couldn’t punch it in, forcing UAB to settle for a field goal. Memphis proceeded to find the end zone and took a 14-10 lead with less than 80 seconds to go before the break.

The Middle Eight

The “middle eight” — referring to the four minutes on either side of halftime — is a game management theory pioneered by Bill Belichick. According to SportSource Analytics, FBS teams that won the middle eight from 2014 to 2019 went on to win the game 74% of the time. Saturday proved no different.

UAB’s momentum begun to dissipate as the second quarter drew on. Down four points with the ball at their own 25-yard line, the Blazers had one minute to drive the length of the field and revitalize the crowd entering the locker room. For an offense that had scored on all but one of its possessions, a field goal seemed attainable.

It was attainable and more. Turning in one of his best series of the day, Burton was phenomenal under pressure, avoiding multiple near-sacks and methodically moving his unit into enemy territory. A seven-yard completion to tight end Elijah Lagg was followed by a 17-yard completion to receiver Brandon Hawkins; Burton was unfazed by a Hawkins drop on the next set of downs, finding Lagg for 15 more yards as a Memphis linebacker bulldozed the pocket.

Although it appeared UAB would have to bring out the special teams unit, sitting at the Tiger 36-yard line with 14 seconds on the clock, Jonah Delange’s entrance was delayed by the Strap Hooks Show; instead of attempting a field goal, the kicker was brought on for an extra point. Hooks followed up a 20-yard reception with a highlight-reel catch in the corner of the end zone, made all the sweeter by the identity of the defender — former UAB safety Chris Bracy.

“[Hooks] is my dog, man,” Burton said. “I wouldn’t have it any other way. Just a guy that’s as competitive as they come. Confident as all get-out, and I don’t think you can ask for much more as a receiver.”

“Get the ball to zero,” the quarterback added. “It’s that simple, right? The guy’s electric, man. The quickness, the twitchiness, and also, he wants the ball. What kind of receiver am I going to want that doesn’t want the ball? He wants the ball, so I’m going to give it to him.”

Even outside of his three touchdowns, Hooks served as a safety blanket for Burton all day: five of his 11 catches were third-down conversions, and he caught the ball every time he was targeted. The receiver attributed his success to the connection between him and Burton, crediting the quarterback for “putting the balls in the right spot and trust[ing] me to go get them.”

“[Burton] knows I’m a competitor,” Hooks said. “There was times in the game I go up to him and say, ‘Hey, if he’s looking like this, if [a defender] is flat like this I’m running right by him.’ Like, it was just like a connection-type thing that we had.”

Thanks to its dynamic duo of redshirt sophomores, UAB went into halftime leading 17-14, an advantage it expanded on almost immediately. After another redshirt sophomore — safety Jeremiah Vessel — sacked Lewis, knocking him out of the game and forcing Memphis to make its first punt of the afternoon, Beebe ripped off the longest touchdown run in UAB history, rumbling 81 yards down the left sideline to put his team up 24-14.

Against a team that held Florida Atlantic to just 75 rushing yards, the play was a home run. On the day, UAB averaged a respectable 5.3 yards per carry. According to Mortensen, the Blazers’ consistency on the ground set up Beebe’s explosion.

“We really like our backs,” Mortensen said. “We still like our offensive line, and a lot of respect to Memphis. They’ve been really good against the run, and their front has been incredibly disruptive. So really, our guys did a good job of covering them, getting a hat on a hat, and then the ball-carriers, again, like we talked about, just gaining the extra two at the point of contact. We felt like we could treat it that way, and we kind of talked about, ‘Hey, treat it like a boxing match,’ you know.”

“We’re not going to come out and throw haymakers, but we’re going to set them up.”

When all was said and done, UAB won the middle eight by a score of 14-7.

A Wild Fourth Quarter

Of course, the battle wasn’t yet won. On the visitors’ final drive of the third quarter, Memphis backup quarterback AJ Hill powered the Tigers into the UAB red zone. Once again, the Blazers’ defense bent without breaking, stuffing Memphis running back Greg Desrosiers in the backfield on third and 3 and forcing a field goal.

However, a Rogers fumble killed a potentially crushing UAB drive, and Memphis again had life with 12:33 on the game clock.

Over the past two and a half seasons, the much-maligned Blazer defense consistently came up short in moments like these, in which game-changing plays were necessities, not luxuries. It was for this reason what happened next prompted such an impassioned celebration — from the Blazers’ 33-yard line, Hill overthrew Cortez Braham, his top receiver. The ball fluttered into the end zone, landing not in a Tiger’s hands but those of UAB safety Pierre Royster.

“Off [the] game plan, we knew [Braham] was their guy,” Royster said. “So once they put him in the slot, that kind of gave me like a light bulb. Quarterback tried to look me off, he didn’t do too much of a good job, and I saw four streaking up the field, so I went and made a play.”

Royster spoke of the interception with pride, evidence of the fact that the Blazer defense had turned a corner. He credited cornerbacks coach Ryan Lewis, defensive coordinator Steve Russ, nickels coach Tee Mitchell, and secondary coach Brent Vieselmeyer with keeping the unit focused even as it received criticism.

“Yeah, coach Lew, coach Tee, coach Russ, coach V do a good job at telling us, like, don’t listen to the outside noise,” Royster said. “We know we got a good defense, it’s just a lot of different pieces. And I think tonight we finally clicked. We finally showed the world what we got.”

A 99-yard UAB drive that saw Hooks accumulate 74 receiving yards and yet another touchdown made the score 31-17 and put a nail in the coffin.

Or so the Protective Stadium audience thought. Using just two of its remaining four minutes, Memphis exploded down the field for a score before forcing UAB’s lone punt of the day. All of a sudden, the game was on.

With the hosts clinging to a 31-24 advantage, everything came down to the Tigers’ final series, the emotional volatility of which is difficult to express in words. It started with a heroic catch by Braham, who scurried over the UAB logo on fourth and 7, rescuing his team with a pickup of 21 yards. It continued with a Desrosiers touchdown run that, after minutes of review, was not a touchdown run; Blazer cornerback Tariq Watson dragged him down at the 1-yard line.

It ended with a goal-line stand for the ages. A false start backed Memphis up five yards, allowing Watson to again deny Desrosiers at the goal line; another false start wiped out the Tigers’ progress, sending them back to the 6; two incompletions preceded an inexplicable delay of game penalty, which forced Hill to toss the ball into the end zone on an 11-yard fourth and goal. Intended receiver Braham was out of bounds, and improbably, the scoreboard read UAB 31, Memphis 24.

“We preached all year, field goals and takeaways,” Roster said. “So we weren’t surprised. We knew we had to buckle down and just play good defense like we did.”

“We’ve been through so much adversity this year,” he added. “It was just another thing, like get them down, we’re going to go finish it. We’re going to go play defense, no matter what.”

Moving Forward

It is unclear where Mortensen stands as a candidate for the permanent job. On the one hand, there is something to be said about paying a guy $2.4 million to go away and then replacing him with his longest-tenured assistant; on the other, Saturday was the program’s three-year high point. In the current climate, it is perhaps wise for a Group of 5 team to save on coaching hires — especially if it just paid a large buyout — and invest money into its roster. Mortensen would likely be among UAB’s cheaper options.

One thing is for certain. Although Mortensen, Burton, and Hooks spoke glowingly of Dilfer after the win, UAB looked like a different football team under Mortensen. The man who made a note of his inexperience in both of his press conferences — “I had to talk to the press on Monday, and I told you then it’s going to be a little off the cuff. Not used to this, so I’m kind of saying the same thing,” he said Saturday — out-coached perennial P5 candidate Ryan Silverfield, a fact Silverfield admitted.

It now seems plausible the 3-4 (1-3) Blazers could compete for bowl eligibility. Two of UAB’s next opponents — Rice, at 3-4 (1-3), and Tulsa, at 2-5 (0-4) — surround the Green and Gold in the conference standings, but the Blazers will have to sweep the Owls and the Golden Hurricane while picking up a win against No. 18 South Florida (6-1, 3-0 AAC, 40th in SP+), North Texas (6-1, 2-1 AAC, 43rd in SP+), or their next opponent, UConn (5-2, 56th in SP+). Mortensen’s squad has little room for error; if they reach .500, however, it will be hard to deny Mortensen the permanent job.

The Blazers will travel to East Hartford, Connecticut on November 1st, but before that, they have an open week. UAB will need to figure out whether Kitna or Burton will be under center on the other side of the break, as well as rest and rehabilitate their injured roster.

“We’re also at a point in the season where we’re pretty banged up,” Mortensen said. “The other thing that I can say that Coach Dilfer probably couldn’t say is that we’ve lost a lot of guys this year that have been hurt. I think the open week gives us an opportunity also to get some guys healthy. We have some guys that worked their way back this week, but I think the open week gives us an opportunity also to get some guys healthy. The guys that are currently healthy can get some good fundamental work in.”

Mortensen made clear that UAB won’t coast on its laurels, quickly putting the Memphis win behind it and making a plan for the rest of the season.

“I think too, we can kind of step back as a coaching staff and, and again, not overreact to one win and still acknowledge like, hey, we have some things that we really need to improve on. Let’s develop a strategy to go improve those things.”

Tier 1: Elite Wins

Memphis Tigers (beat Florida State 20-12)

Memphis strolled into Tallahassee last Saturday and took down a Florida State team that, despite its record, boasts one of the country’s most talented rosters. The 20-12 final score doesn’t do the fact of the matter justice: the Tigers were simply better than their ACC opponents. Postgame win expectancy, a metric that helps isolate the effects of luck, gives Memphis an 88% chance to win if the game was played again with both teams attaining the same stats.

Although not everything was sunshine and rainbows — the Tigers’ run game was stagnant for the second time in three weeks and Florida State nearly mounted a late comeback — this is a momentous win. Memphis is clearly the best team in the American and is in the driver’s seat for the G5 playoff spot.

Tier 2: Encouraging Wins

FAU Owls (beat FIU 38-20)

Florida Atlantic suffered a methodical, embarrassing home loss to Army last Saturday and a hideous loss to Michigan State in the season opener. In what could end up being a decisive year for the Tom Herman experiment, the Owls were not only bad but hard to watch through the season’s early weeks: as of Friday, FAU’s offense was ranked the nation’s fourth-worse by SP+.

That’s why the Owls’ dominant victory over an evenly-matched rival was so important. Although quarterback Cam Fancher looked ineffective for the third consecutive week, FAU established an offensive identity for the first time this season, with RB Zuberi Mobley racking up 140 yards and 3 touchdowns on 20 carries. This team is going to live or die by offensive improvement (or lack thereof), and Saturday’s performance can only be seen as a step in the right direction.

Tier 3: Moral Victories

UAB Blazers (lost to Arkansas 37-27)

An inspiring and perhaps season-defining performance. Some might take issue with the term ‘moral victory,’ especially when applied to a game that slipped away from UAB late, but the Blazers’ efforts in Fayetteville must be separated from the final score. Coming off the most embarrassing loss in recent program history, Trent Dilfer’s squad punched Arkansas in the mouth, dominating the first quarter and jumping out to a 17-3 lead. The Blazers’ flaws eventually reared their heads — Arkansas posted a 99th percentile EPA per rush attempt — but UAB stayed in constant striking distance despite penalty struggles and a scary injury to WR Brandon Buckhaulter.

Full recap to come.

Temple Owls (lost to Coastal Carolina 28-20)

Temple was a 17-point home underdog entering the weekend, a spread well-deserved after the Owls were embarrassed by Oklahoma and Navy. Widely regarded as the worst team in the FBS, it was once unclear whether Stan Drayton’s squad is capable of winning a football game; an 0-12 season is still possible, if not downright likely, but Temple showed encouraging signs of life against Coastal Carolina. Quarterback Evan Simon turned in a respectable performance, the Owl defense held Coastal to just one explosive play, and a Chanticleer pick-six was the difference-maker in the semi-competitive game.

The Owls’ efforts inched them ahead of Kent State and Kennesaw State in ESPN’s SP+ rankings, freeing them from the burden of being the lowest-rated team in the FBS. This version of Temple could have a shot against UConn or, optimistically, Utah State.

Tier 4: Business as Usual

South Florida Bulls (beat Southern Miss 49-24)

South Florida, who faced off against Alabama last week and who takes on Miami (FL) next week, survived a letdown spot on the road against a bad Southern Miss team. The Bulls fell behind early before scoring four consecutive touchdowns to stake themselves to a lead they would never relinquish. QB Byrum Brown was erratic but explosive, USF established a hyper-effective run game, and the Bulls defense allowed a few too many chunk plays through the air, none of which are surprising.

We’ll learn much more about this team next Saturday.

Tier 5: Frustrating Losses

Tulane Green Wave (lost to Oklahoma 34-19)

The last two weeks have been incredibly deflating for Tulane, PAC-12 rumors aside. Last Saturday, the Green Wave dropped a grindy game in Norman in which neither offense looked good: Tulane QB Darian Mensah and company scored just two touchdowns the entire game. Jon Sumrall’s group is certainly talented, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and Tulane has come up short against two consecutive CFP contenders. Although their AAC title odds are still strong, the Green Wave’s playoff chances have all but evaporated.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (lost to Oklahoma State 45-10)

The last two weeks have also been incredibly deflating for Tulsa. QB Kirk Francis and the Golden Hurricane offense dropped 62 points on Northwestern State to open the season, proceeded to lose a heartbreaker on the road at Arkansas State, and then got demolished on Saturday in front of a sold-out home crowd. It wasn’t pretty on either side of the ball: Tulsa posted an offensive success rate of 36% and couldn’t get a stop to save their lives. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman carved up the Golden Hurricane secondary to the tune of 396 passing yards and 5 touchdowns.

East Carolina Pirates (lost to Appalachian State 21-19)

East Carolina had no business losing this game. The Pirates jumped out to a 16-0 lead behind their electric defense and their rowdy home crowd; ECU entered the second quarter in complete control after star cornerback Shavon Revel returned an errant Appalachian State pass 50 yards for a touchdown.

The fact that the Mountaineers clawed back is an indictment on the East Carolina offense, which has proven to be a liability, as I wrote last week.

Tier 6: Jarringly Bad

Rice Owls (lost to Houston 33-7)

Don’t let Houston’s Big 12 status fool you. Arguably the nation’s worst Power 4 team, the Cougars were favored by just 3.5 points entering the night. Rice still managed to turn in one of the worst offensive performances in program history: quarterback EJ Warner finished the night having completed 12 passes for 50 yards.

The Owls’ dreams of a breakthrough season are all but dead. They’ve looked abysmal in both of their FBS games.

UTSA Roadrunners (lost to Texas 56-7)

The implications of a post-Frank Harris universe have set in swiftly and violently. Losing to Texas isn’t embarrassing on its face, but the aura of invulnerability that permeated this program for so long has dissipated. UTSA has been absolutely walloped in two consecutive weeks, a reality that should feel unfathomable to recent observers of G5 football.

The Roadrunners are nowhere near the Memphis/Tulane/USF tier, and they’re probably worse than East Carolina and Army.

North Texas Mean Green (lost to Texas Tech 66-21)

Texas Tech scored 49 points in the first half, put up a grand total of 586 yards, and averaged an otherworldly 8.86 yards per play. North Texas’ offense had no response; QB Chandler Morris, swarmed from the opening snap, completed 15 passes for just 127 yards.

The Mean Green shouldn’t be completely discounted because of one bad performance — they still boast an impressive road win over a good South Alabama — but there are major concerns here. North Texas struggled to score against a TTU defense that gave up 51 points to Abilene Christian, and per SP+, UNT’s defense is the worst unit in the country for the second consecutive season.

Charlotte 49ers (beat FCS Gardner-Webb 27-26)

Biff Poggi criticized fans for leaving at halftime when Charlotte was down 17-3 to an FCS team. Charlotte is now 8-25 since announcing its move to the AAC. The 49ers are 125th in SP+ and still must face a brutal conference schedule. This situation is very bad.

Needle-Moving Wins:

Army Black Knights (beat Florida Atlantic 24-7)

Army’s going to fit in just fine.

The Black Knights employed their trademark brand of option football in a road smashing of FAU, a team that was expected to put up a fight (the spread actually tilted three points in the Owls’ favor).

Jeff Monken’s group was having none of it. In their first-ever AAC game, Army averaged a success rate of nearly 50%. They ran the ball 57 times for 422 yards and completed 1 (one) pass for 44 yards and a touchdown. FAU got service academied.

East Carolina Pirates (beat Old Dominion 20-14)

Last week, I wrote that ECU’s 39-point Week 1 win over Norfolk State wasn’t necessarily an indicator of offensive improvement:

The Pirates looked far from dominant in spite of the shiny box score. Norfolk fields a particularly porous defense, even for an FCS team. Despite the weakness of their opponent, ECU turned the ball over six times, established no semblance of a ground game, and posted an abysmal explosive play rate of 4%. Generating 3 total explosive plays against a bottom-20 FCS unit is not encouraging.

That assessment was proven right when ECU made a return trip to Norfolk on Saturday, this time to take on the Old Dominion Monarchs. Pirates quarterback Jake Garcia threw 4 interceptions, bringing his total to 7 on the year, and East Carolina posted an uninspiring success rate of 36% over 89 plays. ECU’s ground game was stagnant, as has been the case since 2023, and the Pirates’ scoring output was a product of the few explosive plays they were able to generate.

With that being said, East Carolina should feel good going forward. Although their offense will lose them games down the line, the Pirates are currently undefeated, have already matched their 2023 win total, and boast one of the league’s best defenses. Now that UTSA, the toughest team on ECU’s uber-weak AAC schedule, is looking vulnerable, the Pirates could compete for six conference victories.

Moral Victories:

South Florida Bulls (lost to #4 Alabama 42-16)

Don’t let the final score deceive you: South Florida strolled into Bryant-Denny Stadium, a place no Group of 5 team has won since 2008, and competed. Although the Crimson Tide tacked on a series of late face-saving touchdowns, the Bulls were within striking distance deep into the fourth quarter.

Byrum Brown didn’t look great overall — he was wildly inaccurate and completed 15 of his 35 pass attempts for just 103 yards — but he gave Alabama fits with his legs, rushing for 108 yards on 23 carries. USF’s defense, the Bulls’ weakest unit on paper, posted an outstanding havoc rate of 16th% and stood rock-solid before giving up a cascade of explosive plays near the game’s end.

USF has jumped UTSA in the AAC hierarchy. Betting odds peg the Bulls as the clear third-best team in the league behind Memphis and Tulane.

Tulane Green Wave (lost to #17 Kansas State 34-27)

It’s hard to call this game a ‘moral victory’ when Tulane should’ve won outright, but frustrating outcome aside, Jon Sumrall’s squad proved their worth. Surprising freshman quarterback Darian Mensah is good, shredding the Kansas State secondary to the tune of 10.36 yards per dropback. It is apparent that Tulane isn’t going to disappear in the aftermath of the Willie Fritz era.

The Green Wave’s playoff aspirations, while dampened, aren’t yet dead. They head to Norman next week to take on an Oklahoma team that struggled mightily in a narrow Week 2 win over Houston.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (lost to Arkansas State 28-24)

Again, hard to call this one a ‘moral victory’ when it was so close, but Tulsa was widely regarded as the conference’s third-worst team entering the season, with some outlets even ranking them below Charlotte. Through two weeks, the Golden Hurricane have contested that narrative, blowing out FCS Northwestern State before nearly taking down a decent Arkansas State team on the road. Quarterback Kirk Francis is serviceable, Tulsa’s offense packs a surprising punch, and their defense doesn’t seem to be cripplingly bad.

Kevin Wilson’s group still faces an uphill climb to bowl eligibility, but they’re likely to improve on last season’s 2-6 conference record.

No Surprises Here:

Memphis Tigers (beat Troy 38-17)

Memphis wasn’t at its sharpest on Saturday — Seth Henigan didn’t look like himself, Roc Taylor recorded just 27 receiving yards, and the Troy offense posted a success rate of 45% while generating 6 explosive plays — but the Tigers were never in danger of losing this game. Memphis looked much improved on the ground from week 1, as Mario Anderson ran for 128 yards on 16 carries and Greg Desrosiers added 8 more attempts for 59 yards.

The playoff-hopeful Tigers now turn their attention to their upcoming road game against Florida State, a team that, despite recent results, has the talent to test Memphis’ unproven defense.

Charlotte 49ers (lost to UNC 38-20)

This loss was expected. The most pressing concern for the 49ers right now is their mounting injury tally: QB Max Brown, LB Prince Wallace-Bemah, C Jonny King, and CB Dontae Balfour were just a few of the Charlotte players that left the game against the Tar Heels. Brown is out indefinitely; true freshman DeShawn Purdie will take his place until further notice.

Biff Poggi’s already-shallow roster is running out of pieces. Despite turning in a respectable effort against North Carolina, the 49ers could still lose double-digit games.

Navy Midshipmen (beat Temple 38-11)

Methodical and bloodless. Navy’s offense isn’t going to blow anyone away — Brian Newberry’s group recorded just three explosive plays in this one — but the Midshipmen had no trouble mowing down a Temple team that SP+ currently rates as the nation’s worst.

Temple Owls (lost to Navy 38-11)

#0AND12WATCH

FCS Snoozers:

Rice Owls (beat Texas Southern 69-7)

Rice did what they couldn’t against Sam Houston State and took care of business, producing nearly 11 yards per rush and holding FCS Texas Southern to a success rate of just 26%. The Tigers’ only points came on a last-minute drive against Rice’s backups.

Mike Bloomgren’s group will be thrown right back into the fire next week, traveling across town to take on Houston before staring down an intimidating visit to Army. To have a chance in either of those games, Rice needs to see improvement from its passing attack, which still wasn’t particularly sharp on Saturday.

North Texas Mean Green (beat SFA 35-20)

Stephen F. Austin’s 20 points bely their 26% success rate and paltry 3.59 yards per play mark. This game wasn’t as competitive as the score indicated, but North Texas was bizarrely sloppy. Chandler Morris, anointed by UNT Twitter as the conference’s best quarterback last week, threw three interceptions and the Mean Green posted an underwhelming success rate of 38%.

Jarringly Bad:

UAB Blazers (lost to ULM 32-6)

A full recap to come. Ridiculous!

UTSA Roadrunners (lost to Texas State 49-10)

UTSA somehow rivaled — if not surpassed — UAB in ineptitude, turning in a result that can only be described as shocking. The Roadrunners were blown off the face of the planet by their I-35 rivals, allowing Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud to throw for 309 yards and rack up four touchdowns. Jeff Traylor’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed.

UTSA played both Owen McCown and Eddie Lee Marburger at QB. Both options were futile; the Roadrunners couldn’t move the ball in the air or on the ground.

Texas State reaffirmed its status as a dark horse G5 playoff contender, while UTSA looks far from a top-three team in its own conference.

Florida Atlantic Owls (lost to Army 24-7)

Tom Herman’s squad, mired in the second season of a rebuild, does not have the juice. Through two weeks, Marshall transfer Cam Fancher has performed like one of the nation’s worst quarterbacks. FAU’s skill positions are devoid of explosiveness. The Owls cannot throw the ball. The Owls cannot run the ball.

They can play defense to some extent, and their schedule gets easier in the coming weeks — FAU’s next three opponents are FIU, UConn, and Wagner — but 2023’s offensive issues do not seem to be fixed in the slightest; in fact, they seem to be worse.

11:00 SLOT

Three games: Tulane vs. (17) Kansas State, Memphis vs. Troy, Army vs. FAU

Tulane vs. Kansas State is the obvious crown jewel of the early slate. The two teams last met in 2022, when the Green Wave upset KSU en route to an AAC championship and a Cotton Bowl victory; now firmly established as one of the most successful G5 programs in the country, Tulane gets the Wildcats at home this season. In terms of national relevance and playoff implications, this is close to the best it gets in the AAC.

The Green Wave certainly have their hands full. Kansas State is among the most well-rounded teams in the country, one of just four squads to rank top-20 in SP+ in offense, defense, and special teams. The Wildcats absolutely befuddled Jon Sumrall and Joe Craddock, the architects of Tulane’s new offense, when the pair was at Troy last season, holding the Trojans to an abysmal 23% success rate in a 42-13 victory. Kansas State is favored by nearly 10 points at the time of writing, although that number has crept closer to Tulane’s side since it opened.

(That is indeed former UAB tight ends coach Joe Craddock).

Despite being pronounced home underdogs, Tulane fields an extremely capable football team, as they showed in their Week 1 demolition of FCS Southeastern Louisiana. It’s hard to pin down exactly what their current offensive identity is; the Green Wave ran the ball 71% of the time against SELA, but surprise starting QB Darian Mensah completed 10 passes for over 200 yards (!). If nothing else, the mystery and intrigue surrounding Tulane should compel you to watch this one.

Memphis vs. Troy is another viable viewing option. This would’ve been an elite matchup in 2023, but the Trojans are no longer a powerhouse, suffering a surprising Week 1 loss to Nevada in which their defense was diced up to the tune of 7.22 yards per play. They now must face Seth Henigan and Roc Taylor, the vanguard of an offense that ranks among the nation’s 20 best.

Despite the intimidating spread (-18.5 in favor of Memphis), the Trojans aren’t completely bereft of talent. SP+ still pegs Troy as the nation’s 88th-best team, one spot behind UAB, and their offense performed better against Nevada than the 28-26 final score might indicate, posting a healthy 45% success rate and rushing for nearly 5.5 yards per carry.

Memphis shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on Saturday — although it is worth noting the Tigers’ run game went stagnant last week after an injury to RB Sutton Smith — but Troy will give the unproven Tiger defense a test before Memphis travels to Florida State on September 14th.

I cannot, in good faith, recommend anyone tune into Army vs. FAU, a grindy, slow-paced game that will feature two of SP+’s bottom-30 offenses. The total is set at 42.5, the fourth-lowest number in the country this week.

2:30-3:00 SLOT

Three games: Navy vs. Temple, Charlotte at UNC, UTSA at Texas State

Navy vs. Temple and Charlotte at UNC both start at 2:30, and either option will make for deeply unpleasant viewing. The former will be a drawn-out gutting of the nation’s worst team, while the latter will be… a drawn-out gutting of one of the nation’s worst teams.

Change the channel as soon as the UTSA/Texas State game starts at 3:00. Although not quite as sexy as Tulane/KSU, this rivalry matchup carries major postseason implications. Both teams are contenders to win their respective conferences, and according to FanDuel, UTSA and Texas State are tied for the fourth-best odds to claim the G5 playoff spot, trailing only Memphis, Boise State, and Tulane. The game projects to be uber-competitive; UTSA is higher-rated in most predictive metrics, but the spread currently sits at -1.5 in favor of the home team.

UTSA-Texas State will also be much easier on the eyes than Navy-Temple or Charlotte-UNC; both offenses are talented and fast-paced, and both defenses are unproven (particularly the Bobcats’, which seems to be downright porous). The total is set at a healthy 61.5.

This game will carry viewers from the afternoon straight into the evening.

5:00 SLOT

One game: East Carolina at Old Dominion

East Carolina at Old Dominion is a matchup of two intriguing teams: the Pirates’ light schedule and excellent defense make them an AAC dark horse, while the Monarchs nearly knocked off South Carolina on the road last Saturday. The game is also situated by itself in the 5:00 window. When UTSA-Texas State dies down, viewers should make a pit stop here before diving into the meat of the evening slate.

Stylistically, this game is interesting because both ECU and ODU play at a frenetic pace — fans that watch UTSA-Texas State into this matchup will see no shortage of tempo — but neither offense seems to be particularly great.

That's a controversial statement to make after East Carolina installed a new Air Raid system over the offseason and racked up over 500 yards in a Week 1 win over FCS Norfolk State, but hear me out: the Pirates looked far from dominant in spite of the shiny box score. Norfolk fields a particularly porous defense, even for an FCS team. Despite the weakness of their opponent, ECU turned the ball over six times, established no semblance of a ground game, and posted an abysmal explosive play rate of 4%. Generating 3 total explosive plays against a bottom-20 FCS unit is not encouraging.

If you’re expecting a clinic in offensive execution, you probably won’t get it here, but this game is still worth watching. ECU’s exciting defense is one of the conference’s best, and the Pirates’ performance against ODU will serve as the first real account of their strengths and weaknesses.

6:00-6:30 SLOT

Five games: UAB at ULM, USF at (4) Alabama, Tulsa at Arkansas State, Rice vs Texas Southern, North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin

If you’re not a UAB fan, start your night off by putting on a few minutes of USF at Alabama, a rematch of a 2023 game that was oddly close until the fourth quarter.

That is unlikely to happen again. This version of the Crimson Tide is vastly improved from the Tyler Buchner-led bunch the Bulls took on last year; just last week, Jalen Milroe led the Bama offense to an 63-0 mauling of Western Kentucky, a good G5 team with a similar analytical profile to USF. It’s also worth noting that the Bulls’ offense found absolutely no footholds in Bryant-Denny last season, posting a 1st-percentile success rate of 26%, and Alabama’s defense has probably improved since then. Byrum Brown and company have admittedly also improved, but their task is still tall.

In the likely event that the Crimson Tide pull away, tune into one of:

UAB at ULM

I understand that UAB vs. ULM isn’t the sexiest matchup on paper for an unaffiliated fan, but let me try and sell you on it. It’s a rivalry game, in a way. Former UAB interim head coach Bryant Vincent, who wasn’t retained after the end of the 2022 season, is the Warhawks’ new head coach; 13 members of his ULM staff are former UAB employees. Vincent and company know the Blazers like the backs of their hands.

“He knows everything about this offense,” Trent Dilfer recently said of ULM quarterbacks coach Taylor Dupuis, who spent the previous five years at UAB. “He knows it better than I do, so that is the bigger concern. Taylor is in that office wanting to win this game and he has been behind the veil.”

The hidden gem of the timeslot: Tulsa at Arkansas State

What this game lacks in national relevance it will make up for in firepower. Tulsa is coming off a 62-point smashing of FCS Northwestern State, while Arkansas State currently leads the country in tempo after running 104 (!) plays in a near-loss to FCS Central Arkansas. The over/under is currently set at 65.5, the single highest mark in the country this week. Neither of these teams are projected to be very good — although Tulsa might have some fight in them — but sparks will fly!

FBS Victories

North Texas 52, South Alabama 38: No team in the conference is feeling better about itself this morning than North Texas, who strolled into Ladd-Peebles Stadium and took down a very solid South Alabama team in convincing fashion. The Mean Green offense picked up right where it left off: new quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 415 yards and 3 touchdowns while recording a brilliant 0.73 EPA per dropback. Damon Ward Jr. seems on track to be the next breakout UNT receiver, reeling in 12 passes for 230 yards in the win.

The Mean Green defense is clearly still a work-in-progress — USA posted very efficient offensive numbers, finding plenty of success both through the air and on the ground — but any worries about Morris’ fit in the system have been dispelled.

UTSA 28, Kennesaw State 16: It was a tale of two halves for quarterback Owen McCown and the new-look UTSA roster; the Roadrunners took a 15-point lead in the second quarter but quickly fell prey to penalties and poor execution. Jeff Traylor’s group was never truly in danger of losing — the Roadrunners’ win probability bottomed out at 80% — but UTSA’s overall performance felt lackluster, especially considering it was their opponent’s first-ever FBS game. As expected, there will be growing pains.

FCS Blowouts

Army 42, Lehigh 7: Army’s wishbone offense absolutely crushed Lehigh to the tune of 375 rushing yards. If there’s any nitpicking to be done, it’s the fact that the Mountain Hawks averaged a very healthy 0.16 EPA per rush.

Tulsa 62, Northwestern State 28: Tulsa quarterback Kirk Francis averaged 10 yards per completion, the Golden Hurricane rushed for 323 yards, and TU turned in one of the best offensive performances in recent program history. The defense and special teams got the job done, but gave up several massive plays, including a 75-yard touchdown run and a 74-yard kick six. Northwestern State finished the game with an extremely high explosiveness rate of 12%.

Tulane 52, SELA 0: Domination. Tulane’s offense was hyper-efficient and posted nearly 9 yards per play. QB Darian Mensah went 10/12 for 205 yards and two touchdowns. CB Rayshawn Pleasant took a pick-six 100 yards.

UAB 41, Alcorn State 3: Thoughts at length here. Not a fantastic performance; not a terrible one.

Memphis 40, North Alabama 0: The Memphis defense absolutely smothered UNA, holding the Lions to 2.71 yards per play, and QB Seth Henigan looked very sharp. A nitpick: after RB Sutton Smith suffered an early-game injury, the Tiger running game went stagnant. Memphis was stuffed at the line of scrimmage on over a third of their rush attempts.

East Carolina 42, Norfolk State 3: If you thought UAB was sloppy, East Carolina turned the ball over a whopping six times, but QB Jake Garcia was efficient, three interceptions aside. As we established last month, ECU’s defense is one of the best and most exciting in the conference, and it showed. The Pirates racked up 17 (!) tackles for loss and posted a stuff rate of 51%, one of the highest numbers I’ve ever seen.

Navy 49, Bucknell 21: Powered by a perfect red-zone conversion rate and several massive chunk plays, Navy’s offense hummed along, but Bucknell put together multiple healthy drives.

USF 48, Bethune-Cookman 3: USF’s defense performed very well, holding B-C to 1.2 yards per carry and recording 14 TFLs. The Bulls’ offense got the job done, but it wasn’t very explosive. QB Byrum Brown looked just OK on limited passing attempts, and Alex Golesh chose to run the ball over 60% of the time.

??????

Michigan State 16, FAU 10: In most cases, a one-score road loss to a Big 10 team would be cause for celebration, but I have no idea what to make of Florida Atlantic’s hideous game against Michigan State.

The Spartans, for one thing, are bad — preseason SP+ rankings peg MSU as one of the nation’s worst Power 4 teams. FAU also did not play particularly well; their offense performed abysmally, posting a success rate of 28%, giving up 7 sacks on 32 dropbacks, and failing to convert important red zone opportunities. The Owls’ defense put up respectable numbers, but this was a game FAU couldn’t win despite their opponent shooting itself in the foot over and over again (Michigan State committed 12 penalties for 140 yards). The final score reflects more on MSU’s ineptitude than it does on FAU.

Yikes.

Oklahoma 51, Temple 3: As I wrote last month, things are grim in Philadelphia. Losing at Oklahoma isn’t humiliating on its face — it’s unlikely any AAC team could pull out a win in Norman — but Temple was simply obliterated. JUCO transfer Forrest Brock posted a QBR of 7 and the Owl offensive line gave up 6 sacks on 31 dropbacks.

Things will not get better from here. Several of the Owls’ best players are already sidelined with injuries or suspensions, including OT Luke Wilson, DE Diwun Black, and WR Zae Baines, and Temple will be an underdog against all of their remaining opponents. This team could be the nation’s worst.

Sam Houston State 34, Rice 14: An inexplicable result. Rice entered the season with palpable buzz around the program for the first time in recent memory; after a 6-6 campaign in 2023, the Owls added Temple transfer QB EJ Warner en route to picking up the conference’s fifth-highest preseason SP+ rating.

And they were crushed by Sam Houston, a team that joined the FBS in 2023 and went 3-9 last year. Warner was inefficient and the Owl run game was non-existent. The defense was OK — Mike Bloomgren’s group racked up 7 sacks — but the Owls have some soul-searching to do.

James Madison 30, Charlotte 7: SHSU-Rice elicited a shocked yikes; Oklahoma-Temple elicited a gruesome yikes. This yikes is simply resigned. James Madison, a team replacing 95% of its production and 100% of its coaching staff, controlled this game from the start. Somehow, Charlotte is already down nearly half of its starters. The 49ers are 7-24 since announcing their move to the AAC. Biff Poggi is still giving all of his press conferences in cutoffs. What are we doing here?

Stats courtesy of collegefootballdata.com.

How did UAB perform in the five factors?

The “five factors” are the five statistics with the highest correlation to winning football games as identified by Bill Connelly, currently of ESPN. Paraphrased from his 2014 explainer:

• If you win the efficiency battle, you win the game 83 percent of the time.

• If you win the explosiveness battle, you win the game 86 percent of the time.

• If you win the drive-finishing battle, you win the game 75 percent of the time.

• If you win the field position battle, you win the game 72 percent of the time.

• If you win the turnover battle, you win the game 73 percent of the time.

Efficiency is measured by the percentage of offensive plays deemed “successful”. A first down play is considered successful if it gains at least 50 percent of necessary yardage, a second down play is considered successful if it gains at least 70 percent of necessary yardage, and third and fourth down plays are considered successful if they gain at least 100 percent of necessary yardage.

Explosiveness is measured by the average EPA (Estimated Points Added) of a team’s successful plays. An explainer of EPA itself can be found here.

Drive-finishing is measured by the average number of points a team scores on trips inside its opponent’s 40-yard line.

Field position is measured by the average number of yards a team must travel at the beginning of an offensive drive.

The turnover battle is measured by simple turnover margin.

As expected, the Blazers outperformed Alcorn State in four of the five factors, losing only the turnover battle. We now know the underlying reasons UAB won the game, but what conclusions can we draw from that information?

The UAB offense was extremely sloppy.

Jacob Zeno and company opened the game with a bang, engineering a 70-yard march to the end zone on the season’s first possession. Although Alcorn State bottled up early rush attempts from Isaiah Jacobs and Brandon Buckhaulter, freshman receiver Kam Shanks made three catches on the drive, allowing Lee Beebe to power in the ball from the Braves’ 2-yard line. A subsequent blocked punt gifted UAB a short field, and the Blazers jumped out to a 14-0 lead courtesy of Brandon Hawkins’ first career touchdown reception.

That efficiency would be short-lived: Beebe fumbled on each of UAB’s next two drives before a pressured Zeno threw an ugly red-zone interception with 10:10 left in the second quarter. On the following possession, the Blazers accumulated 30 penalty yards in 6 plays, only scoring because of pristine field position provided by the defense. Of UAB’s first 18 plays of the second quarter, just five were successful.

The Blazers finally broke through at the end of the period, wrapping up the half with a rare healthy drive. UAB moved the ball 75 yards in 7 plays, although a collapsing pocket nearly caused Zeno to throw another pick:

Nevertheless, Beebe hammered home another rushing TD on the following snap.

The Blazers entered halftime with a 28-3 advantage, but failed to score another offensive touchdown after the break. Of UAB’s four second-half possessions, three stalled inside the Alcorn 25, while the other ended in a three-and-out.

All in all, the Green and Gold lost the turnover battle and left dozens of points on the table: UAB advanced the ball past the opposing 40 on 9 different drives but scored an average of just 3.78 points on those opportunities. Trent Dilfer was deeply unsatisfied with his team’s lack of attention to detail.

“Disappointed, overall, in the consistency on offense. We have a very high standard. We have an incredibly high standard offensively,” he said after the game, his frustration further evidenced by his decision to leave Zeno in until the final series.

“[No] sense of urgency, we [couldn’t] take care of the football, [our] substitution patterns were terrible... Just nothing to the standard that I expect from our offense.”

The Blazers’ problems weren’t limited to drive-finishing failures and turnovers. The Green and Gold turned in an offensive performance that didn’t meet their standards in efficiency or explosiveness: the Blazers’ success rate was 36%, 12 percentage points lower than their 2023 average, while their explosiveness rate was 1.01, .27 points lower than their 2023 average. For comparison, UAB posted a success rate of over 70% in last season’s opener against NC A&T.

It wasn’t a disastrous outing for the Blazer offense, but it was not an impressive one: the 41-3 final score belies the fact that one of UAB’s touchdowns was scored on special teams and two of their touchdowns were aided by nearly-perfect field position. Despite failing to record any sacks, Alcorn State put pressure on the new-look UAB offensive line several times, forcing Zeno into multiple turnover-worthy throws.

However, there were certainly bright spots:

• It’s easy to forget that UAB racked up over 500 total yards, largely due to the efforts of Isaiah Jacobs and Lee Beebe, the latter of whom rushed for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns, fumbles aside.

• UAB ran the wishbone!

  

• Kam Shanks was outstanding, hauling in 6 receptions for 73 yards — and that goes without mentioning his punt return, which feeds into our next subject…

The defense and special teams were brilliant.

I’ve nitpicked most aspects of UAB’s performance thus far, but here’s something that was unambiguously excellent: the Blazers’ field position. As discussed earlier, UAB started each drive an average of 10.4 yards closer to the end zone than Alcorn State did.

The Blazers achieved this, in part, through absolute special teams domination: only three of Noah Grant’s kickoffs were returned (several even went through the back of the end zone, if you can believe that), Patrick Foley’s only punt traveled 64 yards, Armoni Goodwin returned two kickoffs an average of 21.5 yards, Sirad Bryant blocked an Alcorn State punt in the first quarter, and Kam Shanks recorded UAB’s first punt return touchdown since the days of JJ Nelson.

If you want a positive takeaway from last night’s game, let it be this: the Blazer special teams unit, which was the nation’s worst in 2023, seems to be not only competent but perhaps downright good.

In other good news, Sione Ta'ufo'ou’s defense absolutely swamped Alcorn State, holding their overmatched foes to 60 total passing yards. Chris Bracy racked up 8 tackles and deflected a pass, LD Cox, Kendall Johnson, and Desmond Little each recorded a sack, Colby Dempsey hauled in an interception, and Demarcus Smith recovered a fumble. UAB held the Braves to a success rate of 27% and a nightmarish explosiveness rate of .73. Alcorn’s only trip inside the Blazer 40 came when they recovered a Beebe fumble.

It’s too early to make any sweeping declarations about the UAB defense, but they were much more effective in this season’s opener than they were in the 2023 NC A&T game.

Note A&T’s significantly high numbers in EPA/rush, 3rd down success rate, and red zone success rate.

What’s next?

A road game against Bryant Vincent’s ULM, a run-first team perfectly positioned to exploit the weaknesses of last season’s porous Blazer defense. Will this be the first road win of the Dilfer era? Will this be the first time UAB starts the season 2-0 since 2019?

Buckle up!

One doesn’t have to squint very hard to see the foundations of a sleeping giant in Denton, TX.

Situated on the north end of the sprawling Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, the University of North Texas is the largest school in a region that has long been considered one of the country’s most fertile football recruiting grounds. UNT enrolls nearly 50,000 students a year, a higher number than either Cincinnati or Houston, two similarly urban public schools that have exploded onto the national stage in recent years. The university’s alumni base is mammoth, numbering over 476,000 as of early 2024.

Despite its latent potential, North Texas has never been able to find success and hold onto it: the program hasn’t strung together more than three consecutive winning seasons since 1978. However, it briefly seemed as though the Mean Green had begun to push towards their ceiling in the wake of a massive 2010s facility improvement campaign that culminated in the construction of a new football stadium.

“Three weekends ago, I was sitting in the sparkling new press box of Apogee Stadium, home of the North Texas Mean Green, with my mouth agape,” wrote ESPN’s Ryan McGee in 2012. “Why? Because I hadn't been on the Denton, Texas, campus in more than a decade, and I couldn't believe where I was sitting and what I was seeing. It was as nice a press box as I've seen in college football, the product of a nearly $80 million stadium construction project and a larger Mean Green athletic village that will soon be home to 13 of the school's 16 sports teams.”

“Located where it is and with the commitment they're making to facilities, this place is a sleeping giant," said Gus Malzahn, Arkansas State’s head coach at the time.

That sentiment would be repeated by several parties throughout the decade, but the new stadium brought with it mixed on-field results. Head coach Dan McCarney lead the Mean Green to a 9-4 record in 2013 but was fired in ignominy in 2015 after his team was demolished 66-7 by FCS Portland State.

It was former UNC offensive coordinator Seth Littrell who provided the program’s most recent proof of concept. Hired as UNT’s head coach before the 2016 season, he struck gold on local recruits and quickly turned North Texas into a Conference USA powerhouse. Mason Fine of Locust Grove, Oklahoma became the greatest quarterback in school history. Jeff Wilson of Elkhart, Texas became an all-conference running back. Rico Bussey of Lawton, Oklahoma became one of the nation’s most productive receivers.

But as has been the case for every coach to roam the North Texas sidelines since the 1980s, Littrell couldn’t sustain success for long. After a brilliant first two seasons, the quality of his teams suffered a slow decline that culminated in his unceremonious firing after a 2022 conference championship game loss to UTSA. Littrell significantly raised UNT’s floor during his tenure, but by the admission of university president Neil Smatresk, North Texas wanted to shoot for the stars as they moved into the American.

In Littrell’s place, the Mean Green hired former Washington State OC Eric Morris, a Texas native who spent 2018-2021 as the head coach at FCS Incarnate Word in San Antonio. Despite posting a 5-7 record last season, UNT showed promise in Morris’ first year on the sidelines, turning in competitive efforts against AAC heavyweights UTSA, Tulane, and Memphis and losing a one-score game against Navy. A horrific defense prevented the Mean Green from being truly formidable (à la UAB), but the offense put up an impressive 34.5 points per game behind quarterback Chandler Rogers and running back Ayo Adeyi.

However, North Texas suffered massive roster turnover on both sides of the ball, a frustrating roadblock in the team’s quest to reach the heights of former peers like UTSA and SMU. Morris and company are tasked with onboarding roughly 50 new scholarship players as they attempt to keep UNT relevant in the Texas landscape and deliver the program’s long-awaited breakthrough.

Offense

North Texas was unequivocally one of the best offensive teams in the conference last season, trailing only Memphis and SMU in SP+ rating. The Mean Green specialized in ripping off massive rushing gains, fielding the nation’s most explosive ground game on the backs of RBs Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III, who combined to run for over 1,750 yards. The passing attack was efficient and deadly: QB Rogers thrived in Eric Morris’ ‘Coug Raid’ system, WR Ja’Mori Maclin averaged nearly 18 yards per reception, and OG Febechi Nwaiwu was an all-conference honoree.

As is the life of a G5 team, all of the aforementioned players are gone.

The 2024 UNT offense will almost certainly be quarterbacked by TCU transfer Chandler Morris (no relation to Eric), a former four-star prospect who began his career at Oklahoma. Morris was reasonably effective over three seasons with the Horned Frogs; he may not provide the same duel-threat upside that Rogers did, but he’s an experienced Air Raid QB that’s played under such advocates of the system as Lincoln Riley, Garrett Riley, and Sonny Dykes. If Morris stays healthy, the Mean Green have plenty of reason for optimism at the position.

The keyword is if. Morris has suffered through three consecutive injury-marred campaigns and has appeared in just 21 total games over his four years in college. North Texas doesn’t have a particularly inspiring contingency plan in the event that Morris misses time: their backups are JUCO transfer Carson Woods, true freshman Cash McCollum, and journeyman Grant Tisdale, who also transferred in from TCU.

The Mean Green lose their top five rushers, but return RB Ikaika Ragsdale, who recorded nearly 900 scrimmage yards in 2022 before missing nearly all of last season with an injury. North Texas also imported Power 5 transfers Juwaun Price (Syracuse), a veteran pass-catching back that will fit nicely into Eric Morris’ system, and Zach Evans (Minnesota), who recorded 230 rushing yards for the Golden Gophers in 2023.

North Texas also brings back several capable WRs, including program staple Damon Ward and productive slot receivers Landon Sides and Blair Conwright, but they’re faced with the departure of the excellent Maclin, who was the 2023 team’s leading receiver by over 500 yards. The prime candidate to replace him is West Virginia transfer Jeremiah Aaron, who came into Morgantown as a highly-touted JUCO prospect but was hindered by injuries over his two years at WVU.

Although replacing the production of Adeyi and Adaway III will be no easy feat, UNT’s running back room is deep and experienced, and North Texas’ offensive system lends its WRs to breakout seasons: Maclin gained 624 more receiving yards in 2023 than he did in 2022. The Mean Green shouldn’t suffer a significant falloff at the skill positions.

However, they have questions to answer up front after losing multiple starters on the line. The interior OL imports Landon Peterson from Texas Tech and brings back all-conference guard Gabe Blair and versatile veteran Jett Duncan, giving the Mean Green a workable core, but the tackles are the least experienced position group on the UNT offense. Recent reports from North Texas camp suggest Peterson could move to the outside.

Despite the uncertainty in the trenches, the Mean Green are likely to boast one of the conference’s better offenses if Chandler Morris can stay on the field; just how close they can get to the 2023 unit remains to be seen.

Defense

North Texas was shackled with the worst in a decade-long line of porous Mean Green defenses last season; in fact, the unit was ranked the least effective in the country by both EPA and SP+, and it wasn’t even close. North Texas let up an average of more than 37 points per game and held only three opponents below the 30-point mark.

The main problem was the ground game: UNT opponents racked up a combined total of 3,062 rushing yards by the end of the season. Their shortcomings were counterintuitive, as the team possessed real talent in the front seven — excellent linebacker Jordan Brown and brawny tackle Roderick Brown each performed at an all-conference level — but North Texas DC Matt Caponi attributed many of the defense’s struggles to the switch to a 3-3-5 defensive scheme, which was installed during the 2022 offseason.

The Mean Green will again have some onboarding to do in the fall. Both Browns return in 2023, but Roderick will likely be surrounded by Power 5 transfers Jake Shipley (Oregon) and Terrell Dawkins (South Carolina), while Jordan will be flanked by Iowa State transfer JJ Jean-Louis. Returning starter LB Ethan Wesloski is the only other measure of continuity in the front seven. Whether the newcomers click or not, North Texas has at least added some size, which was a glaring issue last season.

The secondary is in a similar situation: talented veteran Ridge Texada will anchor the unit at cornerback, but Eric Morris and company imported a boatload of Power 5 transfers that will fill out the remainder of the backfield. Safety is the most complicated position in the Mean Green’s system, and former DII player Jayden Hill is a name to watch after an impressive offseason.

North Texas’ defense returns some productive pieces, but its success lies in the hands of 6+ new starters. Caponi has expressed optimism about the fit of the incoming transfers and the freshman class, and the unit has nowhere to go but up; conservative projections still peg the Mean Green as the weakest defensive team in the conference, and they should be thought of as such until they demonstrate marked progress, but a little improvement could go a long way.

Three Best Players:

• LB Jordan Brown

• WR Landon Sides

• DT Roderick Brown

Three Burning Questions:

• How seamless will QB Chandler Morris’ transition to UNT’s system be? Can he stay healthy?

• Will a Maclin or Adeyi-type star emerge at the skill positions?

• Can 6+ new defensive starters lift the unit out of the nation’s cellar?

Outlook and Prediction:

With the Texas G5 arms race in full swing, this is a crucial prove-it season for Eric Morris and the Mean Green. There are two outlooks on North Texas:

Optimistically, Chandler Morris is an excellent on-paper replacement for Chandler Rogers. Despite losing several important skill position players, UNT still has talent at both RB and WR, and their offense will again be one of the highest-octane in the conference. The defense is entering year two of the 3-3-5 with far more size and depth than it had last season. The roster is better outfitted to match the scheme, and returners Jordan Brown, Rod Brown, and Ridge Texada are all-conference level players.

Pessimistically, although the offense will still be good, it will almost definitely be less productive than last year’s stellar unit — the contributions of Rogers, Adeyi, Adaway III, and Maclin will be hard to replicate, and the question marks at tackle are concerning. The defense turns over half of its starters while coming off one of the worst seasons in school history. Has the roster’s overall quality really been upgraded? SP+ doesn’t think so, projecting the Mean Green to fall from the nation’s 86th-best team to its 109th-best.

UNT’s schedule does them no favors, as North Texas opens the season with a tough road game against South Alabama in which they’ll be roughly 7-point underdogs. The Mean Green also have to face Texas Tech on the road and Wyoming at home, the latter of which is a toss-up. A matchup against FCS Stephen F. Austin is UNT’s only respite.

Their conference slate is bookended by relatively easy games against Tulsa and Temple, but the middle six weeks are brutal: at FAU, at Memphis, vs. Tulane, vs. Army, at UTSA, vs. ECU.

North Texas’ range of outcomes is wide — there are probably five games on their schedule that could go either way. Eric Morris and company are certainly capable of exceeding expectations, and a bowl bid is well within reach, but with such roster turnover it’s hard to confidently predict significant improvement for the Mean Green.

6-6 overall, 4-4 AAC

Former UAB football coach Bill Clark made an appearance on WVTM earlier this week, discussing his current day-to-day life and football-season routine and teasing an “announcement” he intends to make in the “next few weeks.”

I watched every college and every NFL game [last season]. I've never watched NFL [before] with coaching, you know, you might hear a score or whatever. But I got to watch almost every game last year. I was just going, how many ways can I watch a game? How many different TVs?

So I had NFL, I had college football. I've got some consulting that I do. So I'm doing good, I'm not in traction. I get a lot of guys that say, ‘are you out of traction?’ So I feel good, [I’ve gone on] a lot of good walks, but I'm ready. I’ll come back on [WVTM]. I got a pretty good announcement that might be coming up soon, so maybe I can tell you about it in the next few weeks.

Clark gave no additional details about his future and didn’t explicitly state whether or not he plans on returning to football.

Clark also made several comments about this year’s Blazers, his scheduling philosophy, his relationship with Trent Dilfer, and the pride he feels in Protective Stadium, the most notable of which are highlighted below.

On expectations for Trent Dilfer in year two:

Well, I think anytime you go into your second year as a head coach, [you’ve got your guys] and they kind of know what to expect.

Obviously, we feel like we know that group that was there in all the years I was there. I know Coach Dilfer from talking to him, and he's excited about the upcoming year.

On relationship with Trent Dilfer:

I have a good relationship with him. I've stayed away. I didn't want to be the one, you know, standing over the top of him, but we’ve spoken many times.

On UAB-Arkansas, mindset on ‘buy games’:

You know, I had a different mindset — not that we didn't go in there to win — but let's just use my last year [as an example]. We had Jacksonville State [before we played Georgia], and then the next week we had North Texas, and then we had Tulane.

And those were really my focus. Obviously, you play them one game at a time, and those are fun games for the kids. A lot of times those are the games they look forward to. But I was really always thinking about those other games, especially the conference games I knew we had to win.

But [the Arkansas game] will still be fun and be a big test.

On what it feels like to drive by Protective Stadium:

Just a lot of pride. I know how many people came together to make that happen. It was such a — and I’ve said this so many times — it was such a team effort to make that happen. But whether we're talking about UAB games or we're talking about high school championships there, it's such an iconic place. We did it right, it was done right, so it’s very cool and I’m very proud of them.

On the ‘trickle effect’ Protective Stadium has had on the city of Birmingham:

This is what we thought [would happen] the whole time. Obviously, in Legion Field, we had a lot of great memories there. But it was time for something new. And I think there's so many things we could do [at Protective] that we really need to even look at more. Obviously, we had the Garth Brooks concert, but so many sporting events could take place there on top of UAB football and high school championships. It’s a great venue.

Clark concluded the interview by giving his thoughts on the state of the Jacksonville State, Auburn, and Alabama football programs.

On his predictions for Jacksonville State football:

Obviously, that's my alma mater, and I love that place. It's very special what Rich Rod has done, especially [since] they've helped him with facilities, they've upgraded their facilities. They had a great year, a lot of momentum.

Obviously, like a lot of schools of that size, they lost some guys in the portal. But from everything I'm hearing, they feel like they're going to be good. I look forward to getting to watch all those guys in practice.

On his relationship with Nick Saban:

I've known Coach Saban for years and years. When I was a high school coach he recruited my guys. A few times I almost went to work there. So there was this really good relationship. Obviously, he's going to be considered one of the best, if not the best [of all time].

Obviously, he had Alabama and Tuscaloosa to worry about, and I had Birmingham and UAB to worry about, but he usually spoke at my clinic every year, so there was always a good relationship.

On Kalen DeBoer:

Well, the thing that I like about him — we don't really know each other personally — but he has worked his way up. I always talk about, ‘give me somebody that's won everywhere they've been.’ And I think he's that guy.

There's no way to prepare a guy for football in the state of Alabama, and who [he’s] replacing. There's no way to know exactly what he's about to go through. It’s going to be hard. But he's a really good coach with great everything: great facilities and great players already. It’s going to be tough to maintain the standard they've already created, but he's a good coach.

On the importance of high school recruiting:

I think there's some folks you would think that would be easy for that don't understand it, but I think a guy that has worked his way up [knows] that. What I always talked about was high school — let's not forget these guys, because [I was a high school coach.] That’s where it all starts, especially locally. We've got what I consider the best coaches in the country or some of the best coaches in the United States coaching football right here, coaching high school.

On his predictions for Alabama football:

They're going to be there. I think they're going to be right there. It’s going to be interesting to see how all of those pieces come together. I think [DeBoer] is a proven great offensive coach. I know [Kane Wommack]. You're going into high expectations defensively, I know he's a good coach.

I think like a lot of people, I'm ready to see and I’m excited to see. But anytime you come back to a proven quarterback, you know you're ahead.

On his predictions for Auburn football:

As we were talking about with Coach Dilfer, anytime it's your second year you start coming closer. Of course, we're now in the world of NIL. It's not the old world where hey, these are my guys, guys I know. It’s not necessarily that [the new guys] are bad, but maybe [you] don't know them as well. Obviously, in his second year you would feel like he's more comfortable. He made some coaching staff changes

Once again, [Hugh Freeze] is a guy that's proven himself in the SEC and is a good coach, but how do pieces fit together for him this year?

On Hugh Freeze’s trust in Auburn QB Payton Thorne:

You know, it's big. It tells you what he thinks about him. I'm hearing that they've added to their receiver core. It makes a quarterback a lot better when you’ve got a guy you can throw that 50-50 ball up to and he's going to make the play. But the time will tell.

I think there's so much to be said, though, for a guy that's been in the wars in the SEC, and now he knows what it's like to go in these environments, which nobody really understands if they've never been in them. You know, 75 to 100 thousand people are screaming, and you're in this bad locker room and all of the things that go with that. There's a guy at quarterback that's at least been through it.

On Auburn nearly beating Georgia and Alabama last season:

I think this is something that people have to understand: where are these games going to be played this year? He had some of those games at Jordan-Hare, and now he's got to go on the road on some of those games. It is a factor and is a point.

But early on, I think they've got a pretty good schedule. Can they get rolling? Of course, it's week-in, week-out. But I think year 2, as I said before, with his guys and [him being] a little more used to what it looks like, I think he's going to feel like this is more of his team.

Earlier today, UAB football head coach Trent Dilfer took the stage at AAC Media Days to answer questions about the rebuilt Blazer defense, the importance of NIL collectives, the lessons he learned from an up-and-down debut campaign, and several other topics.

Fiery and defiant at 2023’s event, Dilfer took a more laid-back tone this year, acknowledging last season’s “humbling” 4-8 record and making it clear that the Blazers aim to improve on their failures.

Steve Irvine published a full transcript of Dilfer’s comments at the Banner. The remarks that stood out are highlighted below.

On the struggles of last season:

Excited to be back. You know, in my life as an NFL quarterback, 4-8 usually gets you fired. Somehow [UAB] held onto me.

[2023] was a tough year, humbling, which is a good thing. I think anytime you go through really low valleys and you embrace it and you own it, you can learn a lot from it. I did. Our players did.

On quarterback Jacob Zeno:

He has to be [an extension of the coaching staff when he’s on the field]… I played for Jeff Tedford in college, and I was an extension of his mind. I thought the same thoughts, you know, like I could finish the sentences for him. I got in the NFL and I didn't really have that simpatico relationship with a play caller… The expectation is perfection [with Zeno]. That's what we're shooting for in our preparation, how we play.

To Jacob's credit, he has never flinched. He has continued to get better. He's never rested on the success he had last year. He was hungry to get back at it. He obviously turned down other massive opportunities to stay with us. We're really proud of him and the progression. We're looking for great things.

On linebacker Michael Moore:

[He was a] position switch guy when we got here, so he was learning on the fly last year. He finished the season banged up a little bit but has done a great job in the offseason getting his body ready to play a complete season this year…

He's an NFL athlete. His length, his athleticism, ability to bend, versatility to play inside against the run, to move on the edge, to cover, to extend versus open sets. It's invaluable. You have to have this type of player to play any type of good defense.

On the new-look defense:

We have been steadfast on looking at our defense very critically, owning how terrible we were last year, and going to work to fix it. It was the first thing we talked about when the season was over. It's been countless sleepless nights trying to rebuild it, and we feel like we've done a good job putting ourselves in position to where we can put really good defense out there…

We signed 21 players out of the portal, and 14 of those are on defense. I expect all 14 to contribute. I mean, there's a possibility we'll have nine new defensive starters this year. We lost one. We lost [Mac McWilliams], a very, very good player, to UCF, but were able to replace him with an equally good player…

I believe all 14 [incoming defensive transfers] will contribute, I really do. None of them were brought in to develop, they were all brought in to contribute. There's definitely a talent piece to that. We focused on length, we had to get long…

You've got to stop critical moments. College football offenses have a massive advantage. Not a little advantage, it’s massive. You're not going to stop everyone… [but] you can steal a possession here or there, you can get them in behind-the-sticks situations. So, we've got to play those critical moments better and take advantage of those moments when we put the team behind the eight ball.

On his scheduling philosophy:

I have nothing to do with our schedule. I'm the newbie. I did in the interview process, ask Mark Ingram, our AD, his scheduling philosophy. He agreed with SEC opponents, obviously it's a good payday for the school, which we need. I agree with that I would like to play an SEC opponent every year…

I don't think you should be scared of [great opponents]… We'll continue to not shy away from anybody. I've told [USF coach Alex] Golesh, we'll play USF in the Walmart parking lot if he wants a double header. I just think that's the way we're wired… You face the lion face to face. You don't run away from the lion. So that's the approach of our program. I think the conference has that approach too, which I'm really proud of.

On NIL collectives and fundraising:

You know, NIL is something that’s a reality we're all facing. Some of us have the opportunity to generate a lot of money for the collectives. Some of us don't…

It's really nothing I can control. Do I fundraise relentlessly? Yes. Does Andy [Kennedy] fundraise relentlessly? Yes. Are we as successful as some others? I don't know…

We're trying to work with our collective to help our student athletes be compensated in a way that is appropriate... I do think that, again, on this topic, a student-athlete feels valued in more ways than just economically. We've been able to recruit some really fine players that were offered a lot more money elsewhere, because they felt the value, not just we were able to collect was able to help them in one way, economically, but a fraction of what they're offered other places. But they also feel valued by opportunity. They also feel valued by connection.

Dilfer also told On3.com that he endorses a salary-floor revenue-sharing model proposed by new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti.

The recent House v. NCAA settlement will allow schools to share revenue with their athletes up to a “salary cap” of $22 million, a number that few, if any, AAC teams are expected to be able to hit. “No, God, no,” Dilfer said when asked whether UAB would be one of them. “We’re not even in the stratosphere.”

Rather than focusing on reaching the spending cap, the AAC is concentrated on setting a baseline level of investment that all of its members must reach.

“I do think it’s important that we set a floor, so all our institutions are investing at a minimum level – it’s important just to create more competitive balance,” Pernetti told On3. “To be part of this conference, we expect you to invest at a minimum level.”

Dilfer enthusiastically agreed with Pernetti, claiming the AAC needs to “get everyone playing the same game.”

“You’re going to a Blackjack table and some are going to the $5,000 minimum hand and some are going to the $5 hand table,” Dilfer said. “We all need to be playing at least the $100 hand. And if someone can go play $5,000 [table], good for them. Every institution at least has to be committed to at least getting to a floor.”

“We all have to be in the game. If you want to be the Yankees, more power to you. But at least be the Royals.”

Charlotte football’s brief history has been one of ludicrous ambition.

Conceptualized in the early 2000s, declared feasible in 2007, and officially birthed in 2008, the program went from an idea to an AAC member in little more than a decade. Through municipal bonds, increases in student fees, and donations from Carolina Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, former Charlotte AD Judy Rose spearheaded a massive fundraising effort that allowed the 49ers to double their athletic budget and build a stadium from scratch in fewer than five years.

Originally intending to spend several seasons at the FCS level, Charlotte received a surprise invitation to Conference USA in early 2012, a development that caused the school to consolidate their football timeline to an unbelievably aggressive degree. By May of that year, the 49ers had announced their intentions to jump to the FBS level by the fall of 2015.

It’s only fitting a program that has shot for the stars since its inception is now led by one of the most determined men in the business.

Francis Xavier "Biff” Poggi, named the third head coach in Charlotte history on November 15th, 2022, is an oddity. A millionaire hedge fund manager-turned prep coaching legend-turned Jim Harbaugh’s right hand man, Poggi does not have the resume, or the demeanor, typical of those in his profession. He holds no prior experience as a college head coach. He is famously indifferent to formal dress codes. He wears his heart on his sleeve at all times, perhaps to a fault.

“They don’t know sh*t. I would like to take whoever those writers were that voted on that, hold them upside down by their ankles, and smack their heads off the ground,” Poggi said of the 2023 AAC preseason media poll that ranked the 49ers last, going on to predict that his team would win the conference outright.

During the honeymoon phase that comes in the wake of every new coach’s hiring, Poggi’s bluster and bravado worked. The Maryland native’s intent to turn Charlotte into an east coast powerhouse fired up donors and gave the program an electricity it had been missing for years.

Unfortunately, Poggi has since had to wrestle with an inconvenient truth: the 49ers have never actually been good at football.

Charlotte spent its FCS existence undergoing predictable growing pains, posting consecutive 5-6 records and dropping games to D2 UNC-Pembroke and D3 Wesley College. The 2015 jump to the FBS treated them no better; under inaugural head coach Brad Lambert, Charlotte failed to finish any better than 8th place in Conference USA. His successor, Will Healy, led the Niners to their sole bowl appearance in 2019 but was fired just three years later. Over the nine seasons they’ve spent in college football’s highest subdivision, Charlotte sports an all-time record of 32-71.

Things didn’t get better in Poggi’s inaugural campaign. Despite the coach’s bold preseason remarks, his squad posted a record of 3-9 (2-6) last season, the exact same mark that cost Healy his job in 2022. The offense was a wreck. The defense, while far from elite, was talented and showed flashes of excellence, but most of the progress made by last year’s Niners has been reset. Over half of the 2023 team’s contributors have departed, either into the portal or into the job market. On paper, things aren’t pretty.

Charlotte isn’t completely hopeless heading into the fall — they reeled in Power 5 transfers at nearly every position, have a reason to be hopeful at quarterback, and bring back multiple productive defenders — but Poggi and company must begin to deliver on their promises with a roster widely regarded as the conference’s second-worst.

Offense

Even in a conference full of inept offenses, Charlotte scraped the bottom of the barrel in 2023. Last year’s unit ranked 127th in SP+, behind even miserable East Carolina and Navy, and put up a 34.6% success rate, the third-lowest mark in the country. They struggled mightily to convert on red-zone opportunities, scoring an average of 2.8 points per trip inside the opponent’s 40. Charlotte’s only saving grace was an all-or-nothing passing attack and an even more all-or-nothing ground game, both of which occasionally ripped off chunk plays, but the Niners were too inefficient for their explosiveness to make a difference.

Charlotte employed a two-quarterback system, putting most of the passing duties in the hands of Trexler Ivey while using the athletic, since-departed Jalon Jones as a de facto running back. Ivey returns in 2024, but he’s expected to lose his job to Florida transfer Max Brown. Brown appeared in six games for the Gators last season, nearly leading a road upset of Missouri and making a start against undefeated Florida State. On paper, his acquisition spells a clear upgrade to one of the nation’s least productive QB rooms.

Charlotte’s skill positions return plenty of starters, including leading receiver Jairus Mack, second-leading rusher Terron Kellman, electric RB/returner Henry Rutledge, and productive tight end Colin Weber, but continuity alone won’t drag the Niners out of offensive hell. After the departure of former four-star RB recruit Durell Robinson, Poggi turned to the transfer portal in the hopes of finding upside, bringing in South Carolina WR O’Mega Blake, Iowa State RB Cartevious Norton, MTSU WR Justin Olson, Michigan RB CJ Stokes, and Independence CC WR Isaiah Myers, all of whom are expected to contribute in the fall.

Another name to monitor: RB Hahsaun Wilson. A longtime walk-on who spent the first 2.5 years of his career on special teams, Wilson erupted in a November 2023 game against Memphis, rushing for 198 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. Although not projected to start at the time of writing, Wilson is an intriguing option whose talent is now apparent.

Charlotte’s biggest question mark is the offensive line, where returning center Jonny King will be surrounded by four Power 5 transfers: Tennessee’s Mo Clipper Jr., Texas A&M’s Jordan Moko, Clemson’s Mitchell Mayes, and Florida’s Jordan Herman. None of the newcomers save Mayes saw much playing time at their previous stops, but the Niners are gambling that the influx of talent will upgrade a unit that was mediocre in 2023.

There exists a cogent vision for improvement on this Charlotte offense — get competent QB play from Brown, find a gem or two at the skill positions, and hope the down-transfers gel in the trenches — but the Niners are banking on potential rather than proven production, and the roster poses far more questions than it holds answers.

And even if everything goes according to plan, Charlotte still must address their…

Defense

The Charlotte defense didn’t fare particularly well in SP+ or even in rudimentary metrics like points per game last season, with miserable average starting field position, a low havoc rate, and a weak strength of schedule holding the unit back; however, it was inarguably the stronger side of the ball. Led by talented linebackers Demetrius Knight II and Nikhai Hill-Green, along with all-conference edge rusher Eyabi Okie, the Niner D boasted the nation’s 50th-highest success rate and ranked 68th in EPA.

Unfortunately, each of the aforementioned players have moved on, along with four more of the 2023 team’s top-ten leading tacklers. The cupboard isn’t quite bare — all-conference cornerback Dontae Balfour returns, along with productive DE Demon Clowney — but each of Charlotte’s position groups is facing a rebuild.

The interior defensive line, the Niners’ weakest link in 2023, will be headed by newcomers Dre Martin and Dre Butler. Martin, a redshirt sophomore, spent the first two seasons of his career at South Carolina, while Butler is a well-traveled veteran who has made stops at Auburn, Liberty, and Michigan State. Behind them will sit returning contributors Dez Morgan and Jonathan Wallace.

Although Charlotte brings back several experienced linebackers, including Clowney, physical run-stopper Stone Handy, program staple Prince Bemah, and the improving Reid Williford, replacing their departed stars’ production will be a monumental task; much of the burden will be placed on FCS transfer Aidan Kaler.

The front seven has plenty of problems to solve, and with just two returning starters, the secondary is in the same boat. Former Boston College safety CJ Clinkscales has received positive reviews from Charlotte DC Ryan Osborn, and DII transfer Eltayeb Bushra sports a unique statistical profile, but few DBs on this roster have extended FBS experience. The excellent Balfour will need to help establish this unit’s identity, and quickly.

To an even greater end than the offense, the Charlotte D has more questions than answers. The returners are productive but few, and the unit as a whole has less obvious starpower than it did in 2023. The Niners will probably be stouter defensively than, say, Temple, but the worst-case scenario is a bottom-10 finish in SP+.

TL;DR

Three Best Players:

• CB Dontae Balfour

• LB Prince Bemah

• QB Max Brown

Three Burning Questions:

• Can transfer quarterback Max Brown save the day?

• Will the brand-new offensive line gel?

• Can the front seven recover from devastating losses?

Outlook and Prediction:

There is a path to offensive improvement, as outlined earlier, and the defense brings back multiple productive players. But at the end of the day, a team that went 3-9 last year is losing most of its linebacking corps, most of its secondary, and most of its offensive line. It’s hard to be optimistic about Charlotte.

Unless Biff Poggi finds several hidden gems across multiple position groups, his team will be among the conference’s (and perhaps country’s) worst. Unfortunately for the Niners, their schedule does them no favors.

Charlotte’s non-conference slate consists of an FCS game, a toss-up home game against a James Madison team losing over 96% of its production, and two buy games at power conference opponents. At best, the Niners will be 2-2 going into AAC play, at which point they’ll likely be underdogs for the rest of the season: Charlotte plays conference games against USF, Tulane, ECU, UAB, Rice, Memphis, FAU, and Navy, the last four of which are on the road.

2-10 overall, 1-7 AAC

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Once upon a time, East Carolina was perhaps Conference USA’s most steady program.

From 2006-2014, the Pirates made eight bowl games, recorded seven winning seasons, and captured two conference championships. They defeated #24 Boise State in the 2007 Hawaii Bowl, scored thrilling upset victories over #17 Virginia Tech and #8 West Virginia in 2008, and reached an AP Poll peak ranking of #14. Only Southern Miss, Houston, and Tulsa matched ECU’s year-over-year consistency in the pre-realignment C-USA landscape.

Skip Holtz, the orchestrator of East Carolina’s rise to relevancy, was hired by South Florida after the 2009 season, but the coaching change barely rocked the Pirates’ boat. Under the hand of beloved alumnus Ruffin McNeill, ECU earned four more bowl berths and an invitation to join the newly formed American Athletic Conference. Despite never reaching the same heights as the era’s most prominent Group of 5 teams, East Carolina was one of the nation’s surest things for almost ten seasons.

That’s why the events of the last decade have been so bizarre.

In a deeply unpopular move, ECU AD Jeff Compher fired McNeill after the Pirates posted a 5-7 season in 2015, a decision which multiple outlets described as “baffling.” At the time of his departure, McNeill’s teams had posted a 62% conference winning percentage, captured the school’s first ten-win season since 1991, and beaten each of Virginia Tech, NC State, and North Carolina twice in a row.

To replace one of the most successful coaches in program history, East Carolina hired Duke OC Scottie Montgomery, who promptly posted three consecutive 3-9 records. Montgomery probably never stood a chance — his tenure overlapped with a well-documented period of turmoil within the ECU administration that ended in Compher’s resignation — but his failure made the school’s firing of McNeill even more bewildering.

Montgomery was dumped just as unceremoniously as his predecessor, let go with a game remaining in the 2018 season to allow ECU to pursue current head coach Mike Houston, who was planning to take the Charlotte job at the time. Houston’s first two Pirates teams struggled, but a breakthrough 2021 season led to a bowl victory in 2022, East Carolina’s first in almost ten years.

But much of Houston’s accumulated goodwill evaporated last season when the Pirates cratered to a horrific 2-10, won a single conference game, and fielded arguably the worst offense in school history. Some bad luck was involved — half of the Pirates’ losses were by ten points or less — but ECU was inarguably bad, finishing 111th in SP+.

Hope isn’t lost heading into 2024. Several factors point to an East Carolina bounceback, most notably the ease of their schedule; college football analyst Adam McClintock’s model gives the Pirates an 80% chance to reach bowl eligibility. But the Mike Houston era has failed to break ECU out of the post-McNeill slump; while winning six games will keep him from being fired, fans likely won’t be satisfied with anything less than an emphatically successful season. A flawed yet intriguing roster gives Houston the chance to produce just that.

Defense

Let’s start with the positives: East Carolina fielded one of the conference’s best defenses last season. There’s a chance it gets even better in the fall.

Much of ECU’s 2023 success came from their fantastic run defense, which ranked third in the entire nation in EPA and second in success rate, just ahead of schools like Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Penn State. The ECU D turned in several comically lopsided box scores, holding FAU to 21 yards on 31 rushing attempts and SMU to 58 yards on 23 attempts; the Pirates even bottled up Michigan’s Donovan Edwards in a September visit to the Big House.

In the trenches, East Carolina returns all-conference defensive linemen D’Anta Johnson and Chad Stephens, who combined for 7.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season, and veterans Elijah Morris, Suirad Ware, and JD Lampley. The Pirates lose several linebackers, but return the productive Mike Edwards III and bring in transfers from Ohio State, Missouri, and Louisville to bolster the front seven. For the second consecutive season, it’ll be hard to run on DC Blake Harrell’s unit.

Most opponents will have to turn to the air, where the Pirates are more vulnerable. In 2023, East Carolina ranked 106th nationally in EPA against dropbacks, six spots worse than UAB. ECU didn’t struggle to defend passes at the level that Temple or North Texas did, but the Pirates had a bad habit of allowing chunk plays and were susceptible to the long ball.

Some of that can be attributed to ECU’s front seven, which was ferocious against the run but less effective in pass rush scenarios, posting an unimpressive 4.71% sack rate, and some of it can be attributed to coverage struggles. However, the Pirates add transfers from UNC, WVU, and Maryland to their defensive backfield, return most of their DB production from 2023, and bring back all-conference cornerback Shavon Revel, a physical, versatile ball of havoc.

The loss of first-team all-conference safety Julius Wood hurts, but it’s almost a sure thing that this defense will be good. The question is: how good? If all goes to plan, East Carolina could feasibly sport a top-60 unit in the nation, but they’ll need to step up on the other side of the ball.

Offense

It got really, really ugly in Greenville last season.

East Carolina ranked 128th in offensive EPA and 132nd in the country in offensive success rate, ahead of only moribund Iowa. The Pirates weren’t effective on the ground or through the air: quarterback Alex Flinn threw for 6 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, running back Rahjai Harris ran for just 485 yards on 129 carries, and the ECU offensive line allowed 2.58 sacks per game, a bottom-30 mark in the country. East Carolina fielded the least efficient offense in the AAC by almost every conceivable metric.

Mercifully, reinforcements are on the way. Former offensive coordinator Donnie Kirkpatrick was let go shortly after the Pirates’ season ended, making way for the hiring of 33-year-old John David Baker. A young, up-and-coming offensive mind, Baker spent the last three seasons as the passing game coordinator and co-OC at Ole Miss, where he helped turn the Rebel attack into one of the most productive in the nation. At ECU, he’ll be handed sole playcalling duties for the first time in his career.

Baker’s first order of business is straightening out the quarterback room, as Flinn retired from football in the offseason. Redshirt freshman Raheim Jeter, who attempted just two passes in 2023, is the Pirates’ only returner at the position, while Georgia State transfer Bryson Harrison was added to the roster less than a month ago.

However, neither are likely to win the job in the face of two pedigreed incoming transfers: Missouri’s Jake Garcia and Michigan State’s Katin Houser, both of whom were four-star recruits coming out of high school. Garcia was Miami (FL)’s second-leading passer in 2022, while Houser served as MSU’s starter for most of last season. Although their situation isn’t ideal, ECU has more talent and experience to work with than most other QB-starved AAC teams.

Aside from Flinn, ECU returns over 60% of last season’s offensive production, including lead running back Harris, promising sophomore RB Javious Bond, and leading receiver Chase Sowell, but continuity alone won’t be enough to improve a unit that put up just 208 points in 2023. The Pirates looked to the transfer portal to bolster their skill position depth, adding NC State WR Anthony Smith, Florida State WR Winston Wright, Jr., and Penn State RB London Montgomery, and signed several talented high schoolers, including four-star WR Yannick Smith.

This is still an offense with a boatload of questions to answer; the pecking order of the line, in particular, is up in the air, with several returners sliding into different positions. It’s unlikely the Pirates field an attack with an SP+ rating better than 100th. But in a weak AAC, even slight offensive improvement could net ECU several more wins, and there’s optimism that a new coordinator and a new quarterback will lead to progress.

TL;DR

Three Best Players:

• CB Shavon Revel

• DL D’Anta Johnson

• DL Chad Stephens

Three Burning Questions:

• Can new coordinator John David Baker revitalize a dismal offense?

• Can someone be the hero at quarterback?

• Can ECU capitalize on their forgiving schedule?

Outlook and Prediction:

Let me say it again: East Carolina’s most important asset is their schedule. The Pirates open the season with two winnable games against FCS Norfolk State and Old Dominion, widely projected to be one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt. However, ECU will proceed to take on Appalachian State and Liberty, matchups where they’ll be pronounced underdogs.

The good news? The Pirates have perhaps the easiest conference slate of any team in the AAC, dodging Memphis, USF, and Tulane; of the league’s upper echelon, ECU will only face UTSA. The rest of their AAC schedule consists exclusively of teams inferior to them in SP+.

East Carolina simply must show offensive improvement, and that’s not a given — despite the additions of several promising newcomers, it’s feasible, if not downright likely, the Pirates are stagnant again. But even marginal progress will allow ECU to dream big in a weak conference. A bowl-eligible season is well within reach; however, East Carolina could do much more than simply bounce back. If Mike Houston wants to emphatically redefine the narrative around his tenure, this is the year to do it.

7-5 overall, 5-3 AAC, with potential to win 9 games

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Longtime supporters of Temple football have experienced misery that would make even a UAB fan shudder.

From 1980 to 2008, the Owls recorded three winning seasons — one of which was wiped away by the NCAA — and eight seasons of one win or fewer. They made zero bowls, cycled through six coaches, were expelled from the Big East due to their lack of success, and considered dropping football entirely. When the program replaced head coach Bobby Wallace with Virginia defensive coordinator Al Golden in 2006, Temple had won 30 of its last 167 games.

But less than five years later, Golden had carried the Owls out of the pits of despair, leading the program to its best two-season stretch since the 1970s and doing the unthinkable: snapping Temple’s decades-long bowl drought. Although Golden was hired by Miami in 2011, he left a strong foundation in North Philly, a foundation which Temple would use to become one of the most consistent mid-major programs of the 2010s.

Unfortunately, the bedrock has crumbled in recent years. The Owls are 10-33 in games played since the pandemic. Rod Carey, who led the team from 2019-2021, was the first Temple coach since Wallace to fail to record a winning season. Current head coach Stan Drayton, hired in 2022, is on a similarly unimpressive run. The Owls have suffered through three consecutive 3-9 campaigns, haven’t cracked the AAC’s top eight since 2019, and haven’t won a road game since 2021.

Coming off its worst three-year stretch since the mid-2000s, Temple finds itself at a crossroads, seemingly staring over the edge of an all-too-familiar cliff: another 3-9 season would put the program in its worst condition since the nadir of the Wallace era. Almost unanimously the worst team in the AAC, the Owls will attempt to claw their way back to relevancy while saddled with a gaping hole at quarterback, a head coach on the hot seat, and the remnants of a historically bad defense.

Good luck!

Offense

Bluntly, Temple was not very good last season.

The Owls claimed early-season victories over Akron and Norfolk State before losing five games in a row, including a 55-0 home decimation at the hands of SMU. Temple proceeded to go 1-7 in conference play, tying them with East Carolina for last on the AAC leaderboard.

Temple wasn’t bad in the way that ECU was bad, which is to say unlucky. Half of the Pirates’ losses were by ten points or less; the Owls, by contrast, lost six games by 22 or more points.

Despite their struggles, there was a faint glimmer of hope for Temple throughout 2023: they sported a competitive, sometimes-downright-good passing game. The jewels of the offense were sophomore quarterback EJ Warner, who followed up on a fabulous 2022 season by throwing for 3076 yards and 23 touchdowns, and tackle Victor Stoffel, who was named second team all-conference after allowing just one sack all season. The duo’s combined efforts led Temple to a 65th-place national finish in dropback EPA.

But any chance of building on that momentum was snatched away over the offseason, as Stoffel left for Cal and Warner elected to transfer to conference rival Rice in one of the most significant AAC moves of the spring. Temple also suffered several losses to graduation, including all-conference tight end David Martin-Robinson and preseason all-conference receiver Amad Anderson.

So where does the Owl offense go from here?

According to its preseason SP+ rating (115th), down. Temple’s quarterback room, which consists of junior Forrest Brock, redshirt freshman Tyler Douglas, and Rutgers transfer Evan Simon, sports a combined career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 5:8. Whoever wins the job will have returning receivers Zae Baines and Dante Wright to throw to, but the Owls do not have a surplus of proven offensive talent. Their skill positions gained fewer than five new players over the offseason. An intriguing addition is receiver Ashton Allen, a grad transfer from USC who hasn’t played football since high school. Allen spent the last four years running track for the Trojans, winning a national championship as a member of the USC 4x100 relay team.

The returning Joquez Smith and the incoming Maryland transfer Antwain Littleton are two solid options at running back, but they’ll have to navigate the issue of the Temple offensive line, which was one of the least effective run-blocking units in the country in 2023. All-conference selection Wisdom Quarshie returns at guard, but the Owls aren’t bringing many reinforcements into the trenches — former South Carolina center Grayson Mains is the only incoming transfer from a four-year school.

With the loss of Stoffel and the lack of new faces, there’s little reason to believe Temple’s OL (or run game) will take a big leap in the fall. The group struggled mightily in the Owls’ April spring game.

And then there’s the…

Defense

Despite having several gaping holes to fill, Temple invested very little transfer capital in its offense, a decision that makes sense when you wrap your head around the situation on the other side of the ball. In 2023, the Owls ranked 130/133 in both defensive SP+ and defensive EPA; they gave up an average of almost 450 yards per game. Their passing defense was perhaps the worst in the country. Statistically, Temple was one of the nation’s few teams that rivaled UAB in porousness.

Similarly to Trent Dilfer, Stan Drayton had no choice but to try and stop the bleeding, bringing in over 20 defensive transfers to reinforce a unit that forced the fewest turnovers of any in the nation. Perhaps the most impressive of the newcomers is safety Andreas Keaton, an FCS Western Carolina transfer who boasts a long list of Southern Conference accolades. Keaton will instantly compete for playing time, as there’s very little continuity in the Temple backfield (although that might not be a bad thing). The Owls lose their top six leading tacklers, 100% of their interceptions, and 50% of their fumble recoveries.

As returning talent goes, pickings are slim. DE Diwun Black, a former Florida transfer, was tied for the team lead in sacks last season while being one of the fastest edge rushers in the conference. Black is a popular breakout pick among prognosticators. He’ll certainly see plenty of snaps.

Just like last year, this defense is on “worst in the country” watch.

TL;DR

Three Best Players:

• G Wisdom Quarshie

• EDGE Diwun Black

• WR Dante Wright

Three Burning Questions:

• Who steps in to replace EJ Warner’s production at quarterback?

• Will the 20+ defensive newcomers stop the bleeding?

• Will another losing season cost Stan Drayton his job?

Outlook and Prediction:

The offense is going through a full rebuild and the defense is somehow going through an even fuller rebuild. On paper, this is a reset year for Temple, an unfortunate situation to be in the third season of the Drayton era.

The Owls will take on a difficult non-conference schedule highlighted by a trip to Oklahoma and home games against Coastal Carolina and Utah State. An October 5th matchup against UConn will provide Temple with their only obvious opportunity for a non-con victory.

Unfortunately for the Owls, Temple won’t see similarly-bad Charlotte in AAC play; home matchups against Tulsa and FAU are probably TU’s best chance of springing a conference win.

1-11 overall, 1-7 AAC

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