1. FAU
T-2nd, 19-5 overall (9-2 AAC)
The discourse around the Owls is downright bizarre. From the way AAC fans talk about Florida Atlantic, you’d think they’re an abject failure, a program crushed by the weight of expectations. FAU’s relative underperformance against a sky-high standard has led people to forget some basic facts about the Owls: they’re a top 50 team in the country by every predictive metric. They have Johnell Davis. They have Alijah Martin. They have Vlad Goldin, who's good, flailing be damned.
The fact of the matter is, this team is still the cream of the AAC crop until proven otherwise. In the 2024 calendar year, the Owls have lost just two games, one at Charlotte and one at UAB. FAU is tied for second in the conference - they could seize possession of first place with a win over South Florida next Sunday.
Do they fail the eye test from time to time? Sure. 12th-place Wichita State took Dusty May’s squad to overtime just last Sunday - FAU proceeded to win the extra period by 13 points. The Owls have an extra gear that no other team in this conference has yet displayed. The post-Final Four afterglow may have faded, but Florida Atlantic is still the most dangerous team in the American.
2. SMU
T-4th, 17-7 overall (8-3 AAC)
This will be one of the more controversial choices on this list, especially to USF fans. How could I rank a fourth-place team above the 10-1 conference leader?
I gave FAU credit for being top 50 in every predictive metric; I’d be a hypocrite if I didn’t do the same for the Mustangs. KenPom pegs SMU as the 46th-best team in the nation. That’s 18 spots behind FAU, 54 spots ahead of Charlotte, and 66 spots ahead of South Florida. Barttorvik and Haslametrics, two other rating algorithms, think the Mustangs are the best team in the conference, surpassing even FAU.
I understand that SMU’s resume doesn’t jump off the page. They’ve lost to Memphis, North Texas, and a bad Wichita State team; they took their foot off the gas against Tulane and should’ve lost to UAB. However, they’re undefeated at home and boast wins over Charlotte and UNT. They have a stable of impressive players, even outside of superstar Zhuric Phelps. SMU’s Phelps, BJ Edwards, Chuck Harris, Samuell Williamson, and Keon Ambrose-Hylton lineup is downright dominant. They’re a peak North Texas-style team capable of wreaking the same havoc as the McCasland Mean Green squads did.
3. South Florida
1st, 17-5 overall (10-1 AAC)
Hold your fire! South Florida fans, your team is good. The win percentage speaks for itself. But ShotQuality thinks your Bulls have overperformed their projected record by five wins, most predictive metrics say USF is the fifth to seventh-best team in the American, and they’ve played the easiest conference schedule of any AAC school. It’s reasonable to step back and look at the bigger picture.
First of all, the job Amir Abdur-Rahim has done in Tampa is downright incredible. With just a couple of Kennesaw State transfers and a bit of player development, he’s gifted a formerly moribund program their most competitive team in over a decade. After seeing his body of work at KSU and USF, I think Abdur-Rahim rivals Dusty May as the best coach in this conference.
I still have some questions. Is Selton Miguel’s three-point percentage sustainable? The guard, who makes triples at a 31.3% clip for his career, is currently shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc.
Is this defense sustainable? Only two AAC teams have shot above 35% from three against the Bulls - ShotQuality attributes that more to luck than great defense. Three-point defense is historically not a strong suit of Abdur-Rahim’s teams, even the good Kennesaw State squads, but USF’s opponents are shooting 31.7% from deep against them, a bottom-70 rate in the country.
My point is, there’s still a lot of uncertainty around the Bulls. There’s a reason Charlotte and FAU both have better odds to win the regular season title.
However, USF’s small-ball lineups with Youngblood, Jayden Reid, Brandon Stroud, and Kasean Pryor (a legitimate NBA prospect) can be devastating. The Bulls have displayed impressive composure in close games, something I attribute to their coaching edge over nearly every team in the conference. Seeing the trophy end up in Tampa wouldn’t be a shock.
FAU at USF, noon next Sunday, ESPN. Must-watch.
4. Charlotte
T-2, 15-8 overall (9-2 AAC)
Charlotte and South Florida are very evenly matched. I gave the nod to the Bulls because of USF's head-to-head win, but I would not object to a claim that the 49ers are better. Like Abdur-Rahim, head coach Aaron Fearne has made Charlotte the class of the American in his first year. The Niners boast an intimidating core of Lu’Cye Patterson, Igor Milicic, Dishon Jackson that has emerged as one of the best in the conference.
Just like with USF, there are some questions about whether Charlotte’s defensive production is sustainable, although they're less pronounced. However, the 49ers don’t have to worry as much about their defense being tested. Their remaining schedule is easier than South Florida’s. The two teams will meet one another in Charlotte on March 2nd; in the leadup, the Niners play UTSA, Wichita State, Memphis, and Tulsa, while the Bulls play Tulsa, FAU, UTSA, and SMU.
Despite ranking Charlotte a spot lower, I think they have a better chance to win the regular season title than USF. The 49ers have an easier path and get to play the Bulls in Halton.
5. UAB
T-4, 16-8 overall (8-3 AAC)
I assume you’re reading this as a UAB fan, so there’s no need for a preface. Since the Arkansas State debacle, and especially since the beginning of conference play, the Blazers have looked like a completely new team. Eric Gaines consistently changes games with his point guard play, the development of AJ Vasquez and Butta Johnson has given Kennedy far more weapons to work with, and one could argue that Yaxel Lendeborg is a top-three player in the American. Offensively, I’m very impressed by this UAB team. The Green and Gold now have various avenues through which to manufacture points.
Of course, UAB still has holes, most notably on D. ShotQuality pegs the Blazers’ defense one of the worst in the country at defending rim attacks. The zone Andy Kennedy has employed since the Tulane game has helped, but it still leaves UAB vulnerable to teams with a surplus of shooting. The Blazers played well against FAU, but I think they did get a little lucky that the Owls missed plenty of open shots.
However, it’s hard to argue that UAB isn’t headed in the right direction. The Blazers have been competitive in every game they’ve played in 2024 - they’ve been one of the best teams in the country against the spread over the last two months. Kennedy’s squad has as impressive a collection of conference wins as any AAC peer, having beaten Memphis, FAU, North Texas, and USF.
6. North Texas
7th, 13-10 overall (6-5 AAC)
KenPom pegs UNT a clear top-four team in the American, but the Mean Green have looked downright uninspiring in recent weeks. North Texas has lost five out of their last seven and two in a row at home. The memory of their 17-game winning streak at the Pit has already faded, but I still don’t think the panic button needs to be hit. The last three weeks have been an absolute gauntlet for North Texas - all their losses were against the conference’s top five. Two of those Ls saw UNT’s opponents shoot an unsustainable 40% from three.
In all the chaos, the Mean Green still took home a win against SMU and crushed Tulsa on the road. Jason Edwards continues to be among the league’s best scorers, dropping 62 combined points in back-to-back games against UAB and USF. The Mean Green will be relevant down the stretch. Their chances at good seeding are gone, but they’re going to pose a nightmare to whichever poor 11-seed advances to face them.
7. Memphis
6th, 18-6 overall (7-4 AAC)
Memphis is in a similar position to North Texas - good on paper but unable to put it all together. We all know about their run of misfortune that culminated in a home loss to #223 Rice. Things have gotten marginally better, but Memphis still doesn't inspire confidence. The Tigers barely squeaked past 12th-place Wichita State. Penny continues to insist on closing games with his sons. This certainly isn’t an elite team. Three games out of first place, they’re all but eliminated from winning the conference they so confidently insist they run.
Unfortunately, Memphis still boasts the most talented roster in the AAC. David Jones is pretty clearly the second-best player in the conference behind Johnell Davis. Jahvon Quinerly has been excellent since the Rice loss. Former DII All-American Jonathan Pierre is getting consistent playing time for the first time all season and has looked very solid. Nepotism aside, I think Penny’s rotations are better than they were even two weeks ago.
Love them (lol) or hate them, Memphis is dangerous. They won’t be regular-season champions, but I think the Tigers have as good a chance as anyone to win the conference tournament. They’ll be held back by having to play four games instead of three, but as far as teams in their seeding range go, I’d much rather play East Carolina or Tulane.
8. Tulane
9th, 13-10 overall (4-7 AAC)
Tulane is in a much worse version of North Texas’s situation. They’ve failed to beat the conference’s elite, and their only signature win (Memphis) has depreciated in value. Ron Hunter’s group has also struggled mightily with the AAC’s basement, needing overtime to beat Tulsa and Temple and flat-out losing to UTSA.
Tulane’s conundrum is that they have size but no rebounding. The average Greenie is 6’5”, which ranks in the top 80 in the country, but opponents have blown the Wave off the boards in recent weeks. They’ve had to work around massive offensive rebounding disadvantages, even against bad teams: facing Temple, Tulane recorded just seven offensive boards while the Owls grabbed 15. The cumulative effect is showing. The Wave are now 358th in the country in offensive rebounds and 332nd in the country in offensive rebounds given up.
As I’ve said about North Texas and Memphis, this isn’t a team I’d be thrilled to face in March. Hunter is one of the league’s best coaches, and Tulane’s small-ball lineup headed by Kevin Cross can be extremely tricky for the unprepared. However, the last few weeks have proven the Wave can be beaten with size and athleticism.
9. East Carolina
8th, 12-12 overall (5-6 AAC)
East Carolina is the AAC team closest to the mean. Their offensive and defensive efficiencies are within two points of the national median. Their KenPom ranking is 177th, four spots away from being dead average. Their overall record? 12-12. Their conference record? 5-6.
The Pirates aren’t bad, but they’re by no means great. They’ve done exactly what they’re supposed to do (beat teams worse than them) and not done what they’re not supposed to do (beat teams better than them). ECU is undefeated against numbers 10-14 on this list and winless against numbers 1-8.
10. Tulsa
T-10th, 12-11 overall (3-8 AAC)
LA Tech West has taken a notable step forward this season. Eric Konkol, who seems to attract success, has put last year’s subterranean win percentage behind him and built Tulsa into a genuinely competitive team in the AAC. The Golden Hurricane have cleanly separated themselves from the bottom of the pack, boasting wins over UTSA, Rice, and Wichita State. Guard PJ Haggerty is one of the best freshmen in Division 1. TU has massively improved in almost every facet of the game - they’re currently ranked 137 KenPom spots higher than 2023’s team.
Almost every facet of the game. Even with Haggerty’s impressive finishing skills, Tulsa has struggled to create consistent offense. Their limitations on that end of the court have held the Golden Hurricane back massively and have prevented them from competing with the conference’s upper class - TU has no wins over a team higher than them on this list. However, they’ve been scrappy, and Tulsa could take a significant jump next year if the transfer portal blesses them.
11. Wichita State
T-12, 10-14 overall (2-9 AAC)
I feel bad for first-year coach Paul Mills, a man thrown into a very tough situation. The roster isn’t great, the expectations are always high, and Wichita State’s NIL situation is notably messy. By all metrics, the Shockers aren’t as bad as their record would indicate - KenPom ranks them the country’s 156th-best team, a large step ahead of ECU and Tulsa. However, none of this has placated WSU fans, who are witnessing their proud program’s worst season since the early aughts.
Wichita hasn’t attracted massive levels of talent since Gregg Marshall's departure, and that didn’t change last offseason. Colby Rogers and Xavier Bell are good players, but WSU doesn’t have the depth to compete against the conference’s top layer. The Shockers are 0-5 against Memphis, FAU, and North Texas, with their margin of defeat sitting at a combined 53. Recent play has been better - Wichita State has knocked off SMU, beat UTSA, and taken FAU to OT in their last five games - but the SMU win was WSU’s first victory of the calendar year.
And back to the predictive metric thing - yes, KenPom thinks Wichita is far from the AAC's cellar. However, the Shockers are 0-3 against Temple, ECU, and Tulsa; they lost those three games by a combined 20. At a results-oriented program, there’s only so much coasting on analytics you can do before the on-court product takes precedence.
12. Rice
T-10, 9-15 overall (3-8 AAC)
If you can believe it, this is Scott Pera’s seventh season in Houston. If you can believe it (you can), this is the seventh time Pera has fielded a team fitting the same high-scoring offense, eye-gouging defense archetype.
Unfortunately for the Owls, “high-scoring” does not mean “good.” Rice averages the third-most PPG of any team in the American, yet has one of the worst o-ratings in the conference, per KenPom. Why? The bookworms are terribly inefficient - Pera’s group turns it over on nearly 19% of possessions and makes less than a third of their threes despite taking over 24 a game. Rice’s defense is similarly bad, but it's actually the best unit the Owls have fielded under Pera . Their main problem is an offense that has regressed from 2023.
Despite what the standings say, I think there’s a clear delineation between these bottom three teams and the rest of the conference - Memphis win aside, the Owls haven’t beaten anyone other than UTSA and Temple. The AAC’s top 11 range from great to simply bad; these squads, on the other hand, are disasters. Rice is 44 KenPom spots lower than Tulsa, while Tulsa is just two spots lower than ECU and 23 spots lower than Wichita State.
Rumors are buzzing that Pera isn’t long for Houston, and I think they have credence.
13. UTSA
T-12, 8-16 overall (2-9 AAC)
The difference between UTSA and their fellow cellar-dwellers is the bright spots they’ve seen in league play. Since January 2nd, the Roadrunners have given UAB a battle, beat Rice, taken Memphis and FAU to overtime, and beat Tulane. They have a slightly worse record than Rice, but they have a win against the Owls and have shown more life than their in-state rival. I was extremely close to moving the Roadrunners up into the 12 spot. What stopped me is UTSA’s absolutely jaw-dropping analytical profile.
It is hard to put into words how much metrics dislike this team, and it almost exclusively stems from their defense. Mired at 2-9 in league play, the Runners sport the worst defensive rating in the AAC by five entire points - to put that into perspective, that’s the same difference as the second-place and sixth-place teams. KenPom ranks UTSA’s D 358th in the nation. There are 362 schools in Division 1.
The prevailing opinion is that Steve Henson is almost certainly done in San Antonio.
14. Temple
14th, 8-16 overall (1-10 AAC)
This might be a controversial take for those who feel passionately about the bottom of the AAC, but Temple is a worse basketball team than UTSA. I will admit this opinion is not particularly backed up by fact - most predictive metrics think the Roadrunners are at least 40 spots worse than the Owls - but I can’t take TU seriously.
A concise summary of Temple’s problems:
As you can imagine, this dissonance between philosophy and practice has not treated Adam Fisher’s team kindly. The Owls are firmly entrenched at the bottom of the American offensive leaderboards. They sport the league’s worst 3P%, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. From the context of a conference tournament matchup, I’d certainly rather see the Owls than the Roadrunners; at least UTSA has a cogent offensive plan. At the time of this writing, Temple has lost nine consecutive games in league play. They’re entrenched at the bottom of the AAC table and are gearing up for an almost sacrificial visit to FAU on Thursday.