AAC Viewing Guide: Week 2
AAC Viewing Guide: Week 2
The optimal way to consume AAC football this Saturday.
11:00 SLOT
Three games: Tulane vs. (17) Kansas State, Memphis vs. Troy, Army vs. FAU
Tulane vs. Kansas State is the obvious crown jewel of the early slate. The two teams last met in 2022, when the Green Wave upset KSU en route to an AAC championship and a Cotton Bowl victory; now firmly established as one of the most successful G5 programs in the country, Tulane gets the Wildcats at home this season. In terms of national relevance and playoff implications, this is close to the best it gets in the AAC.
The Green Wave certainly have their hands full. Kansas State is among the most well-rounded teams in the country, one of just four squads to rank top-20 in SP+ in offense, defense, and special teams. The Wildcats absolutely befuddled Jon Sumrall and Joe Craddock, the architects of Tulane’s new offense, when the pair was at Troy last season, holding the Trojans to an abysmal 23% success rate in a 42-13 victory. Kansas State is favored by nearly 10 points at the time of writing, although that number has crept closer to Tulane’s side since it opened.
(That is indeed former UAB tight ends coach Joe Craddock).
Despite being pronounced home underdogs, Tulane fields an extremely capable football team, as they showed in their Week 1 demolition of FCS Southeastern Louisiana. It’s hard to pin down exactly what their current offensive identity is; the Green Wave ran the ball 71% of the time against SELA, but surprise starting QB Darian Mensah completed 10 passes for over 200 yards (!). If nothing else, the mystery and intrigue surrounding Tulane should compel you to watch this one.
Memphis vs. Troy is another viable viewing option. This would’ve been an elite matchup in 2023, but the Trojans are no longer a powerhouse, suffering a surprising Week 1 loss to Nevada in which their defense was diced up to the tune of 7.22 yards per play. They now must face Seth Henigan and Roc Taylor, the vanguard of an offense that ranks among the nation’s 20 best.
Despite the intimidating spread (-18.5 in favor of Memphis), the Trojans aren’t completely bereft of talent. SP+ still pegs Troy as the nation’s 88th-best team, one spot behind UAB, and their offense performed better against Nevada than the 28-26 final score might indicate, posting a healthy 45% success rate and rushing for nearly 5.5 yards per carry.
Memphis shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on Saturday — although it is worth noting the Tigers’ run game went stagnant last week after an injury to RB Sutton Smith — but Troy will give the unproven Tiger defense a test before Memphis travels to Florida State on September 14th.
I cannot, in good faith, recommend anyone tune into Army vs. FAU, a grindy, slow-paced game that will feature two of SP+’s bottom-30 offenses. The total is set at 42.5, the fourth-lowest number in the country this week.
2:30-3:00 SLOT
Three games: Navy vs. Temple, Charlotte at UNC, UTSA at Texas State
Navy vs. Temple and Charlotte at UNC both start at 2:30, and either option will make for deeply unpleasant viewing. The former will be a drawn-out gutting of the nation’s worst team, while the latter will be… a drawn-out gutting of one of the nation’s worst teams.
Change the channel as soon as the UTSA/Texas State game starts at 3:00. Although not quite as sexy as Tulane/KSU, this rivalry matchup carries major postseason implications. Both teams are contenders to win their respective conferences, and according to FanDuel, UTSA and Texas State are tied for the fourth-best odds to claim the G5 playoff spot, trailing only Memphis, Boise State, and Tulane. The game projects to be uber-competitive; UTSA is higher-rated in most predictive metrics, but the spread currently sits at -1.5 in favor of the home team.
UTSA-Texas State will also be much easier on the eyes than Navy-Temple or Charlotte-UNC; both offenses are talented and fast-paced, and both defenses are unproven (particularly the Bobcats’, which seems to be downright porous). The total is set at a healthy 61.5.
This game will carry viewers from the afternoon straight into the evening.
5:00 SLOT
One game: East Carolina at Old Dominion
East Carolina at Old Dominion is a matchup of two intriguing teams: the Pirates’ light schedule and excellent defense make them an AAC dark horse, while the Monarchs nearly knocked off South Carolina on the road last Saturday. The game is also situated by itself in the 5:00 window. When UTSA-Texas State dies down, viewers should make a pit stop here before diving into the meat of the evening slate.
Stylistically, this game is interesting because both ECU and ODU play at a frenetic pace — fans that watch UTSA-Texas State into this matchup will see no shortage of tempo — but neither offense seems to be particularly great.
That's a controversial statement to make after East Carolina installed a new Air Raid system over the offseason and racked up over 500 yards in a Week 1 win over FCS Norfolk State, but hear me out: the Pirates looked far from dominant in spite of the shiny box score. Norfolk fields a particularly porous defense, even for an FCS team. Despite the weakness of their opponent, ECU turned the ball over six times, established no semblance of a ground game, and posted an abysmal explosive play rate of 4%. Generating 3 total explosive plays against a bottom-20 FCS unit is not encouraging.
If you’re expecting a clinic in offensive execution, you probably won’t get it here, but this game is still worth watching. ECU’s exciting defense is one of the conference’s best, and the Pirates’ performance against ODU will serve as the first real account of their strengths and weaknesses.
6:00-6:30 SLOT
Five games: UAB at ULM, USF at (4) Alabama, Tulsa at Arkansas State, Rice vs Texas Southern, North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin
If you’re not a UAB fan, start your night off by putting on a few minutes of USF at Alabama, a rematch of a 2023 game that was oddly close until the fourth quarter.
That is unlikely to happen again. This version of the Crimson Tide is vastly improved from the Tyler Buchner-led bunch the Bulls took on last year; just last week, Jalen Milroe led the Bama offense to an 63-0 mauling of Western Kentucky, a good G5 team with a similar analytical profile to USF. It’s also worth noting that the Bulls’ offense found absolutely no footholds in Bryant-Denny last season, posting a 1st-percentile success rate of 26%, and Alabama’s defense has probably improved since then. Byrum Brown and company have admittedly also improved, but their task is still tall.
In the likely event that the Crimson Tide pull away, tune into one of:
UAB at ULM
I understand that UAB vs. ULM isn’t the sexiest matchup on paper for an unaffiliated fan, but let me try and sell you on it. It’s a rivalry game, in a way. Former UAB interim head coach Bryant Vincent, who wasn’t retained after the end of the 2022 season, is the Warhawks’ new head coach; 13 members of his ULM staff are former UAB employees. Vincent and company know the Blazers like the backs of their hands.
“He knows everything about this offense,” Trent Dilfer recently said of ULM quarterbacks coach Taylor Dupuis, who spent the previous five years at UAB. “He knows it better than I do, so that is the bigger concern. Taylor is in that office wanting to win this game and he has been behind the veil.”
The hidden gem of the timeslot: Tulsa at Arkansas State
What this game lacks in national relevance it will make up for in firepower. Tulsa is coming off a 62-point smashing of FCS Northwestern State, while Arkansas State currently leads the country in tempo after running 104 (!) plays in a near-loss to FCS Central Arkansas. The over/under is currently set at 65.5, the single highest mark in the country this week. Neither of these teams are projected to be very good — although Tulsa might have some fight in them — but sparks will fly!