Preview: UAB Opens Conference Play at North Texas
The Blazers kick off the league slate against a familiar foe.
Game Information
UAB (7-6, KenPom #138) at UNT (9-3, KenPom #71)
📅: Tuesday, December 31st, 2024
🕒: 3:00 PM CST
🏟️: Denton, Texas — The Super Pit
📺: ESPNU
📻: WJQX 100.5 FM
Trends and Odds
UAB enters the afternoon at 7-6 overall, having won three of its last four games — granted, all three wins came against the SWAC. The Blazers have moved up nine KenPom spots since their disastrous December 15th loss to Arkansas State, but their #138 ranking still places them sixth among AAC teams.
North Texas enters the afternoon at 9-3 overall, boasting an impressive resume that includes wins over Minnesota, Oregon State, and Northern Iowa. UNT has won three games in a row, albeit against weak competition. The Mean Green’s #71 KenPom ranking places them second among AAC teams — they trail only Memphis.
UAB is 0-1 against teams in the KenPom top 100; in fact, they’re 1-6 against teams in the KenPom top 250, with their November win against Southeastern Louisiana marking their sole victory over a quality opponent. Against Arkansas State — the only team of UNT’s caliber they’ve played — the Blazers lost after blowing a 27-point lead.
All of North Texas’ losses have come against members of the KenPom top 125, including the same High Point squad that took down UAB in November. UNT has dominated inferior competition, sporting a perfect 9-0 record against teams ranked 130th or lower in KenPom.
FanDuel gives the Blazers a 29.85% implied probability of beating North Texas and has set the spread at UNT -5.5, while KenPom gives the Blazers a 20% probability of beating North Texas and has set the spread at UNT -9.
Series History
UAB holds a 10-8 all-time record against UNT, making the series one of the Blazers’ most fiercely contested.
North Texas has perhaps been UAB’s defining basketball rival of the Kennedy era. The teams have met ten times since the start of the COVID pandemic; although the Blazers have edged out a 6-4 lead in the recent series, the UNT games are always among the most dreaded and memorable on the calendar.
There was last season’s thriller in Denton, in which UAB erased a 17-point deficit and proceeded to force overtime with less than a second left on the clock.
Butta Johnson scored five of UAB’s ten points in the extra period, and the Blazers snapped North Texas’ 17-game home winning streak.
There was the grueling 2023 campaign that saw North Texas sweep the regular-season series against UAB, lose to Jelly Walker’s Blazers in the Conference USA tournament, and then go on to beat the same Blazers in the NIT championship.
The games were marked by several epic duels between Walker and UNT’s Tylor Perry — although Walker killed Perry’s NCAA Tournament hopes, Perry eventually got the last laugh when he splashed an NIT-winning dagger over Walker’s outstretched arm.
There was the 2022 heartbreaker in Bartow Arena in which Perry again crushed the Blazers’ spirits, nailing two last-minute threes to erase a seemingly insurmountable deficit.
There were the three consecutive victories UAB picked up in Denton from March 2021 to January 2022. During the first two, the Blazers overcame masterful performances from the Mean Green’s Javion Hamlet to beat UNT on back-to-back days of a COVID-era road trip; during the third, UAB rode Walker and Trey Jemison to one of its most impressive wins of the season.
In the last four years, the away team has won 75% of the series’ games. If history repeats itself, the Blazers have a good chance of picking up a win at the Super Pit today — they’ve done it four times since 2021, after all.
North Texas Scouting Report
Two years ago, North Texas posted one of the greatest seasons in school history, winning 31 games, skyrocketing to 31st in KenPom, and taking home the NIT title for the first time ever. Unfortunately, much of their success came at the expense of UAB, and many Blazer fans were relieved to see coach Grant McCasland and guard Tylor Perry depart Denton during the 2023 offseason.
That did not stop the machine. Although the following season’s UNT squad didn’t quite replicate the achievements of its predecessor, McCasland disciple Ross Hodge kept the program’s identity unchanged. The grueling tempo stayed the same; the ferocious defense stayed the same; even the tradition of the star guard stayed the same, as JUCO transfer Jason Edwards — formerly of Miles College — took the reins from Perry, who himself once took the reins from Hamlet.
Hodge, Edwards and crew led the Mean Green to a 74th-place KenPom finish last season, a mark that put them among the AAC’s elite; however, for the first time in several years, UNT was unable to best UAB. Behind the aforementioned Lendeborg buzzer-beater coupled with a dominant effort in Bartow, the Blazers swept North Texas and relegated them to a distant seventh on the conference leaderboard.
Here’s to replicating that feat. The Mean Green once again sport an all-new look. Although Hodge is still roaming the sidelines in Denton, Edwards is gone, as is nearly the entirely of UNT’s ‘23-’24 roster. Despite the massive personnel turnover, one of college basketball’s most consistent programs has remained consistent — North Texas is again a healthy 71st in KenPom and currently fields one of the best defenses in the country.
For the first time in several seasons, the Mean Green don’t have a ball-dominant superstar in the backcourt. Fairfield transfer Jasper Floyd and Drake transfer Atin Wright, who you may remember from his 20-point performance against UAB in December 2023, form a steady, veteran tandem, but neither of them possess the sheer gravitational pull of Edwards, Perry, or Hamlet.
Although not a particularly gifted shooter, Floyd is UNT’s starting point guard and possesses the tools to contribute as an offensive role player. He initiates many of the Mean Green’s actions, serving as the team’s pick-and-roll ballhandler nearly 50% of the time, and sports a top-150 assist rate in the nation.
Floyd really shines in pressure defense, as evidenced by his 3.5% steal rate. Per hoop-explorer, he ranks 2nd in the AAC in defensive RAPM (regularized adjusted plus/minus).
Wright, the Mean Green’s leading per-game scorer, is an all-around excellent offensive player. He doesn’t turn the ball over; he rarely commits fouls; he makes his free throws at an elite clip. Wright is also hitting nearly 38% of his three-pointers despite attempting over six of them per game. This is not an anomaly — he made 40% of his 155 three-pointers last season at Drake. The worst thing you can say about Wright is that his 6’1” frame saddles him with defensive limitations, but it’s hard to isolate a single weak link in UNT’s system.
I’m confident Wright’s name is at the top of Andy Kennedy’s scouting report — the Blazers have already seen what he’s capable of.
G/F Rondel Walker is back for his second season under Hodge, and his role has remained largely the same: defend, box out, and be a general bother. Walker takes a backseat on offense, scoring just 5.5 points per game and using a minuscule 12.1% of possessions. However, his 6’5” frame allows him to grab boards at a high rate — he’s second on the team in rebounds — and play flexible wing defense. Walker ranks fourth in the AAC in defensive RAPM, just two spots behind his teammate Floyd.
F Brennan Lorient is perhaps North Texas’ greatest success story. You might remember Lorient as a former Florida Atlantic backup power forward; the Florida native spent the last two seasons in Boca Raton but never saw consistent playing time, taking a backseat to Vlad Goldin, Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, and even Giancarlo Rosado.
Hodge has turned the former benchwarmer into a force to be reckoned with. Lorient is now one of the conference’s best shot-blockers, but that skill was apparent even when he was riding the pine at FAU. What’s been more impressive is Lorient’s offensive transformation — he’s become the Mean Green’s primary frontcourt scoring option. The athletic 215-pounder is mobile in space, often serving as a cutter and P&R roll man, and is making 60% of his two-point attempts while drawing nearly five fouls per 40 minutes.
Lorient averages 10.8 points per game in just 22.8 minutes per game. Although he doesn’t start, he’s a much more dynamic offensive option than typical PF starter Grant Newell.
6’9, 245-pound C Moulaye Sissoko, back for his third year in Denton, anchors the Mean Green’s interior. Although he’s an underwhelming shot-blocker for his size, Sissoko is among the conference’s best rebounders, hauling in over 26% of defensive rebounds when he’s on the floor. Like many players we’ve discussed today, Sissoko is invisible on offense but very present on defense; he ranks first in the AAC in defensive RAPM, ahead of Floyd and Walker.
To round out North Texas’ rotation:
G Latrell Jossell is the backup option to Floyd and Wright. He’s a good shooter, an aggressive defender in the vein of Floyd, and a player with the tools to initiate action and distribute the ball. Like Wright, Jossell is 6’1”; I’m curious to see whether or not Hodge uses the small lineup of Wright and Jossell against UAB’s physical guards and wings.
F Grant Newell is a massive, 6’9” wing that fits into the typical mold of a UNT defender but, as previously mentioned, isn’t much of an offensive threat.
F Johnathan Massie is another wing that fits the profile of the UNT defense. Think of him as an upgraded version of Newell — although he’s by no means an offensive weapon, Massie has shot better than Newell, rebounded better than Newell, and caused more defensive disruption than Newell this season.
Outlook
Although the names on the uniforms are mostly different, this is a North Texas team we’ve seen before. The Mean Green possess size and aggressiveness at nearly every position; their versatility has led KenPom to deem their defense one of the nation’s 30 best.
Andy Kennedy has complained at length about UAB’s lack of physicality. After the Blazers’ most recent win over Alcorn State, he said, “This team does not play with enough force. I can’t get certain guys — one of which wears number 3 — to roll to the basket. Everything’s perimeter. And this team cannot live on the perimeter.”
Well, this is a trial by fire.