AAC Week 2 Performance Tiers: Is Anyone Good?
AAC Week 2 Performance Tiers: Is Anyone Good?
The AAC posted a combined 2-6 record against out-of-conference opponents last weekend.
Needle-Moving Wins:
Army Black Knights (beat Florida Atlantic 24-7)
Army’s going to fit in just fine.
The Black Knights employed their trademark brand of option football in a road smashing of FAU, a team that was expected to put up a fight (the spread actually tilted three points in the Owls’ favor).
Jeff Monken’s group was having none of it. In their first-ever AAC game, Army averaged a success rate of nearly 50%. They ran the ball 57 times for 422 yards and completed 1 (one) pass for 44 yards and a touchdown. FAU got service academied.
East Carolina Pirates (beat Old Dominion 20-14)
Last week, I wrote that ECU’s 39-point Week 1 win over Norfolk State wasn’t necessarily an indicator of offensive improvement:
The Pirates looked far from dominant in spite of the shiny box score. Norfolk fields a particularly porous defense, even for an FCS team. Despite the weakness of their opponent, ECU turned the ball over six times, established no semblance of a ground game, and posted an abysmal explosive play rate of 4%. Generating 3 total explosive plays against a bottom-20 FCS unit is not encouraging.
That assessment was proven right when ECU made a return trip to Norfolk on Saturday, this time to take on the Old Dominion Monarchs. Pirates quarterback Jake Garcia threw 4 interceptions, bringing his total to 7 on the year, and East Carolina posted an uninspiring success rate of 36% over 89 plays. ECU’s ground game was stagnant, as has been the case since 2023, and the Pirates’ scoring output was a product of the few explosive plays they were able to generate.
With that being said, East Carolina should feel good going forward. Although their offense will lose them games down the line, the Pirates are currently undefeated, have already matched their 2023 win total, and boast one of the league’s best defenses. Now that UTSA, the toughest team on ECU’s uber-weak AAC schedule, is looking vulnerable, the Pirates could compete for six conference victories.
Moral Victories:
South Florida Bulls (lost to #4 Alabama 42-16)
Don’t let the final score deceive you: South Florida strolled into Bryant-Denny Stadium, a place no Group of 5 team has won since 2008, and competed. Although the Crimson Tide tacked on a series of late face-saving touchdowns, the Bulls were within striking distance deep into the fourth quarter.
Byrum Brown didn’t look great overall — he was wildly inaccurate and completed 15 of his 35 pass attempts for just 103 yards — but he gave Alabama fits with his legs, rushing for 108 yards on 23 carries. USF’s defense, the Bulls’ weakest unit on paper, posted an outstanding havoc rate of 16th% and stood rock-solid before giving up a cascade of explosive plays near the game’s end.
USF has jumped UTSA in the AAC hierarchy. Betting odds peg the Bulls as the clear third-best team in the league behind Memphis and Tulane.
Tulane Green Wave (lost to #17 Kansas State 34-27)
It’s hard to call this game a ‘moral victory’ when Tulane should’ve won outright, but frustrating outcome aside, Jon Sumrall’s squad proved their worth. Surprising freshman quarterback Darian Mensah is good, shredding the Kansas State secondary to the tune of 10.36 yards per dropback. It is apparent that Tulane isn’t going to disappear in the aftermath of the Willie Fritz era.
The Green Wave’s playoff aspirations, while dampened, aren’t yet dead. They head to Norman next week to take on an Oklahoma team that struggled mightily in a narrow Week 2 win over Houston.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (lost to Arkansas State 28-24)
Again, hard to call this one a ‘moral victory’ when it was so close, but Tulsa was widely regarded as the conference’s third-worst team entering the season, with some outlets even ranking them below Charlotte. Through two weeks, the Golden Hurricane have contested that narrative, blowing out FCS Northwestern State before nearly taking down a decent Arkansas State team on the road. Quarterback Kirk Francis is serviceable, Tulsa’s offense packs a surprising punch, and their defense doesn’t seem to be cripplingly bad.
Kevin Wilson’s group still faces an uphill climb to bowl eligibility, but they’re likely to improve on last season’s 2-6 conference record.
No Surprises Here:
Memphis Tigers (beat Troy 38-17)
Memphis wasn’t at its sharpest on Saturday — Seth Henigan didn’t look like himself, Roc Taylor recorded just 27 receiving yards, and the Troy offense posted a success rate of 45% while generating 6 explosive plays — but the Tigers were never in danger of losing this game. Memphis looked much improved on the ground from week 1, as Mario Anderson ran for 128 yards on 16 carries and Greg Desrosiers added 8 more attempts for 59 yards.
The playoff-hopeful Tigers now turn their attention to their upcoming road game against Florida State, a team that, despite recent results, has the talent to test Memphis’ unproven defense.
Charlotte 49ers (lost to UNC 38-20)
This loss was expected. The most pressing concern for the 49ers right now is their mounting injury tally: QB Max Brown, LB Prince Wallace-Bemah, C Jonny King, and CB Dontae Balfour were just a few of the Charlotte players that left the game against the Tar Heels. Brown is out indefinitely; true freshman DeShawn Purdie will take his place until further notice.
Biff Poggi’s already-shallow roster is running out of pieces. Despite turning in a respectable effort against North Carolina, the 49ers could still lose double-digit games.
Navy Midshipmen (beat Temple 38-11)
Methodical and bloodless. Navy’s offense isn’t going to blow anyone away — Brian Newberry’s group recorded just three explosive plays in this one — but the Midshipmen had no trouble mowing down a Temple team that SP+ currently rates as the nation’s worst.
Temple Owls (lost to Navy 38-11)
#0AND12WATCH
FCS Snoozers:
Rice Owls (beat Texas Southern 69-7)
Rice did what they couldn’t against Sam Houston State and took care of business, producing nearly 11 yards per rush and holding FCS Texas Southern to a success rate of just 26%. The Tigers’ only points came on a last-minute drive against Rice’s backups.
Mike Bloomgren’s group will be thrown right back into the fire next week, traveling across town to take on Houston before staring down an intimidating visit to Army. To have a chance in either of those games, Rice needs to see improvement from its passing attack, which still wasn’t particularly sharp on Saturday.
North Texas Mean Green (beat SFA 35-20)
Stephen F. Austin’s 20 points bely their 26% success rate and paltry 3.59 yards per play mark. This game wasn’t as competitive as the score indicated, but North Texas was bizarrely sloppy. Chandler Morris, anointed by UNT Twitter as the conference’s best quarterback last week, threw three interceptions and the Mean Green posted an underwhelming success rate of 38%.
Jarringly Bad:
UAB Blazers (lost to ULM 32-6)
A full recap to come. Ridiculous!
UTSA Roadrunners (lost to Texas State 49-10)
UTSA somehow rivaled — if not surpassed — UAB in ineptitude, turning in a result that can only be described as shocking. The Roadrunners were blown off the face of the planet by their I-35 rivals, allowing Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud to throw for 309 yards and rack up four touchdowns. Jeff Traylor’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed.
UTSA played both Owen McCown and Eddie Lee Marburger at QB. Both options were futile; the Roadrunners couldn’t move the ball in the air or on the ground.
Texas State reaffirmed its status as a dark horse G5 playoff contender, while UTSA looks far from a top-three team in its own conference.
Florida Atlantic Owls (lost to Army 24-7)
Tom Herman’s squad, mired in the second season of a rebuild, does not have the juice. Through two weeks, Marshall transfer Cam Fancher has performed like one of the nation’s worst quarterbacks. FAU’s skill positions are devoid of explosiveness. The Owls cannot throw the ball. The Owls cannot run the ball.
They can play defense to some extent, and their schedule gets easier in the coming weeks — FAU’s next three opponents are FIU, UConn, and Wagner — but 2023’s offensive issues do not seem to be fixed in the slightest; in fact, they seem to be worse.